diff --git a/src/db.js b/src/db.js
index f91061a..0c9da7e 100644
--- a/src/db.js
+++ b/src/db.js
@@ -76,6 +76,16 @@ function initializeDatabase() {
               else logger.info('Successfully added cutoff_rating column');
             });
           }
+
+          const hasPredictedCalculatedAt = columns.some(col => col.name === 'predicted_calculated_at');
+
+          if (!hasPredictedCalculatedAt) {
+            logger.info('Adding predicted_calculated_at column to players table...');
+            db.run(`ALTER TABLE players ADD COLUMN predicted_calculated_at DATETIME DEFAULT NULL`, (err) => {
+              if (err) logger.error('Error adding predicted_calculated_at column:', err.message);
+              else logger.info('Successfully added predicted_calculated_at column');
+            });
+          }
         });
       });
 
diff --git a/src/models/player.js b/src/models/player.js
index 5f3f2c7..4191571 100644
--- a/src/models/player.js
+++ b/src/models/player.js
@@ -187,11 +187,12 @@ function saveRoundHistoryToDB(pdgaNumber, roundData, isIncremental = false) {
   });
 }
 
-function savePredictedRatingToDB(pdgaNumber, predictedRating, stdDev = null, excludedRoundsCount = null, cutoffRating = null) {
+function savePredictedRatingToDB(pdgaNumber, predictedRating, stdDev = null, excludedRoundsCount = null, cutoffRating = null, calculatedAt = null) {
+  const timestamp = calculatedAt || new Date().toISOString();
   return new Promise((resolve, reject) => {
     db.run(
-      'UPDATE players SET predicted_rating = ?, std_dev = ?, excluded_rounds_count = ?, cutoff_rating = ? WHERE pdga_number = ?',
-      [predictedRating, stdDev, excludedRoundsCount, cutoffRating, pdgaNumber],
+      'UPDATE players SET predicted_rating = ?, std_dev = ?, excluded_rounds_count = ?, cutoff_rating = ?, predicted_calculated_at = ? WHERE pdga_number = ?',
+      [predictedRating, stdDev, excludedRoundsCount, cutoffRating, timestamp, pdgaNumber],
       function(err) {
         if (err) reject(err);
         else resolve();
diff --git a/src/services/player-service.js b/src/services/player-service.js
index 25bcb7d..567c308 100644
--- a/src/services/player-service.js
+++ b/src/services/player-service.js
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 const { db } = require('../db');
 const { getPlayerFromDB, getRoundHistoryFromDB, savePredictedRatingToDB, savePlayerToDB, getMonthlyHistory, getAllMonthlyHistoriesFromDB, getAllRatingHistoriesFromDB } = require('../models/player');
 const { fetchPlayerDataHTTP, parsePlayerData } = require('../scrapers/player-http');
-const { calculatePredictedRating } = require('./rating-calculator');
+const { calculatePredictedRating, getPreviousPDGAUpdateDate } = require('./rating-calculator');
 const logger = require('../logger');
 
 function formatDisplayDate(dateStr) {
@@ -50,6 +50,25 @@ async function getPlayerDataFromDB(pdgaNumber, { includeMonthlyHistory = true }
         cutoffRating = updatedPlayer?.cutoff_rating;
       }
 
+      // Staleness-check: invalidate cached predicted_rating if the PDGA cycle has
+      // rolled over since it was calculated. Don't recompute — round_history may be
+      // equally stale. UI will show "—" until the next manual refresh.
+      const predictedCalculatedAt = cachedPlayer.predicted_calculated_at
+        ? new Date(cachedPlayer.predicted_calculated_at)
+        : null;
+      const previousUpdate = getPreviousPDGAUpdateDate();
+      const hasPredicted = predictedRating !== null && predictedRating !== 0;
+      const isStale = hasPredicted && (
+        predictedCalculatedAt === null || predictedCalculatedAt < previousUpdate
+      );
+      if (isStale) {
+        logger.debug(`PDGA ${pdgaNumber}: predicted rating stale (calculated ${predictedCalculatedAt?.toISOString() ?? 'unknown'}, cycle rolled ${previousUpdate.toISOString()})`);
+        predictedRating = null;
+        stdDev = null;
+        excludedRoundsCount = null;
+        cutoffRating = null;
+      }
+
       const rating = cachedPlayer.current_rating;
       const rawRatingChange = cachedPlayer.rating_change;
       const resolvedPredicted = predictedRating > 0 ? predictedRating : null;
diff --git a/src/services/rating-calculator.js b/src/services/rating-calculator.js
index 576427f..4712b9e 100644
--- a/src/services/rating-calculator.js
+++ b/src/services/rating-calculator.js
@@ -37,39 +37,43 @@ function parseDate(dateStr) {
   return new Date(dateStr);
 }
 
+function secondTuesdayOf(year, month) {
+  const firstDay = new Date(year, month, 1);
+  const daysUntilTuesday = (2 - firstDay.getDay() + 7) % 7;
+  const firstTuesday = new Date(year, month, 1 + daysUntilTuesday);
+  const secondTuesday = new Date(firstTuesday);
+  secondTuesday.setDate(firstTuesday.getDate() + 7);
+  return secondTuesday;
+}
+
 function getNextPDGAUpdateDate() {
   const today = new Date();
   const currentMonth = today.getMonth();
   const currentYear = today.getFullYear();
 
-  const firstDayOfMonth = new Date(currentYear, currentMonth, 1);
-  const firstTuesday = new Date(firstDayOfMonth);
+  const thisMonths = secondTuesdayOf(currentYear, currentMonth);
 
-  const daysUntilTuesday = (2 - firstDayOfMonth.getDay() + 7) % 7;
-  firstTuesday.setDate(1 + daysUntilTuesday);
-
-  const secondTuesday = new Date(firstTuesday);
-  secondTuesday.setDate(firstTuesday.getDate() + 7);
-
-  if (today <= secondTuesday) {
-    return secondTuesday;
+  if (today <= thisMonths) {
+    return thisMonths;
   } else {
     const nextMonth = currentMonth === 11 ? 0 : currentMonth + 1;
     const nextYear = currentMonth === 11 ? currentYear + 1 : currentYear;
-
-    const firstDayNextMonth = new Date(nextYear, nextMonth, 1);
-    const firstTuesdayNext = new Date(firstDayNextMonth);
-
-    const daysUntilTuesdayNext = (2 - firstDayNextMonth.getDay() + 7) % 7;
-    firstTuesdayNext.setDate(1 + daysUntilTuesdayNext);
-
-    const secondTuesdayNext = new Date(firstTuesdayNext);
-    secondTuesdayNext.setDate(firstTuesdayNext.getDate() + 7);
-
-    return secondTuesdayNext;
+    return secondTuesdayOf(nextYear, nextMonth);
   }
 }
 
+function getPreviousPDGAUpdateDate() {
+  const today = new Date();
+  const year = today.getFullYear();
+  const month = today.getMonth();
+  const thisMonths = secondTuesdayOf(year, month);
+  if (today > thisMonths) return thisMonths;
+  // Otherwise: last month's second Tuesday
+  const prevMonth = month === 0 ? 11 : month - 1;
+  const prevYear = month === 0 ? year - 1 : year;
+  return secondTuesdayOf(prevYear, prevMonth);
+}
+
 function calculateStandardDeviation(ratings) {
   if (!ratings || ratings.length === 0) return 0;
 
@@ -238,4 +242,4 @@ function calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings) {
   return { rating: finalRating, stdDev: Math.round(stdDev), debugLog, excludedRoundsCount, cutoffRating };
 }
 
-module.exports = { parseDate, getNextPDGAUpdateDate, calculatePredictedRating, calculateStandardDeviation };
+module.exports = { parseDate, getNextPDGAUpdateDate, getPreviousPDGAUpdateDate, calculatePredictedRating, calculateStandardDeviation };