diff --git a/src/routes/players.js b/src/routes/players.js
index 12df148..0e313e9 100644
--- a/src/routes/players.js
+++ b/src/routes/players.js
@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ const { getOfficialRatingHistory, getOptimizedPlayerRounds } = require('../scrap
 const { launchBrowser } = require('../scrapers/browser');
 const { getPlayerDataFromDB, scrapePDGARating, getAllRatingsFromDB, refreshAllPlayersInDB, getPredictedRatingFromDB, formatDisplayDate } = require('../services/player-service');
 const { getTopbarLocals } = require('../services/topbar-service');
-const { calculatePredictedRating } = require('../services/rating-calculator');
+const { calculatePredictedRating, getNextPDGAUpdateDate } = require('../services/rating-calculator');
 const { calculateRequiredAverage } = require('../services/target-rating-calculator');
 const logger = require('../logger');
 
@@ -449,9 +449,9 @@ router.get('/api/admin/player-state/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
       return res.status(404).json({ error: 'Player not found', pdgaNumber: parseInt(pdgaNumber) });
     }
     const rounds = await getRoundHistoryFromDB(pdgaNumber);
-    const now = new Date();
-    const twelveMonthsAgo = new Date(now); twelveMonthsAgo.setFullYear(now.getFullYear() - 1);
-    const twentyFourMonthsAgo = new Date(now); twentyFourMonthsAgo.setFullYear(now.getFullYear() - 2);
+    const cutoff = getNextPDGAUpdateDate();
+    const twelveMonthsAgo = new Date(cutoff); twelveMonthsAgo.setFullYear(cutoff.getFullYear() - 1);
+    const twentyFourMonthsAgo = new Date(cutoff); twentyFourMonthsAgo.setFullYear(cutoff.getFullYear() - 2);
 
     const roundsInLast12mo = rounds.filter(r => new Date(r.date) >= twelveMonthsAgo).length;
     const roundsInLast24mo = rounds.filter(r => new Date(r.date) >= twentyFourMonthsAgo).length;
@@ -468,6 +468,7 @@ router.get('/api/admin/player-state/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
       cutoffRating: player.cutoff_rating,
       lastUpdated: player.last_updated,
       lastRoundUpdate: player.last_round_update,
+      cutoffDate: cutoff.toISOString(),
       roundCount: rounds.length,
       roundsInLast12mo,
       roundsInLast24mo,
@@ -475,7 +476,7 @@ router.get('/api/admin/player-state/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
       newestRound: dates[dates.length - 1] ?? null
     });
   } catch (err) {
-    logger.error({ err: err.message, pdgaNumber }, 'admin player-state endpoint failed');
+    logger.error({ err, pdgaNumber }, 'admin player-state endpoint failed');
     res.status(500).json({ error: 'Failed to fetch player state', details: err.message });
   }
 });
@@ -519,7 +520,7 @@ router.post('/api/calculate-target-rating/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
       competition: r.competition_name
     }));
 
-    const result = calculateRequiredAverage(roundRatings, target, numRounds);
+    const result = calculateRequiredAverage(roundRatings, target, numRounds, pdgaNum);
 
     logger.info(`Target rating calc for PDGA ${pdgaNum}: target=${target} rounds=${numRounds} -> avg=${result.requiredAverage}`);
 
diff --git a/src/services/player-service.js b/src/services/player-service.js
index a94b98e..3ce2e50 100644
--- a/src/services/player-service.js
+++ b/src/services/player-service.js
@@ -42,7 +42,9 @@ async function getPlayerDataFromDB(pdgaNumber, { includeMonthlyHistory = true }
       let stdDev = cachedPlayer.std_dev;
       let excludedRoundsCount = cachedPlayer.excluded_rounds_count;
       let cutoffRating = cachedPlayer.cutoff_rating;
+      let recomputeAttempted = false;
       if (!predictedRating || predictedRating === 0) {
+        recomputeAttempted = true;
         logger.debug({ pdgaNumber, dbValue: cachedPlayer.predicted_rating }, 'lazy recompute triggered for predicted_rating');
         predictedRating = await getPredictedRatingFromDB(pdgaNumber);
         const updatedPlayer = await getPlayerFromDB(pdgaNumber);
@@ -56,8 +58,9 @@ async function getPlayerDataFromDB(pdgaNumber, { includeMonthlyHistory = true }
 
       const rating = cachedPlayer.current_rating;
       const rawRatingChange = cachedPlayer.rating_change;
-      if (predictedRating != null && predictedRating <= 0) {
-        logger.warn({ pdgaNumber, dbValue: predictedRating }, 'predicted rating present but <= 0 — rendered as empty');
+      // Only warn about ≤0 if it wasn't already explained by a failed recompute (which has its own log)
+      if (!recomputeAttempted && predictedRating != null && predictedRating <= 0) {
+        logger.warn({ pdgaNumber, dbValue: predictedRating }, 'predicted rating present but <= 0 in DB without recompute — rendered as empty');
       }
       const resolvedPredicted = predictedRating > 0 ? predictedRating : null;
       const resolvedStdDev = stdDev > 0 ? stdDev : null;
diff --git a/src/services/target-rating-calculator.js b/src/services/target-rating-calculator.js
index 94d7f5b..953510c 100644
--- a/src/services/target-rating-calculator.js
+++ b/src/services/target-rating-calculator.js
@@ -1,14 +1,14 @@
 const { calculatePredictedRating, getNextPDGAUpdateDate } = require('./rating-calculator');
 const logger = require('../logger');
 
-function calculateRequiredAverage(roundRatings, targetRating, numRounds) {
+function calculateRequiredAverage(roundRatings, targetRating, numRounds, pdgaNumber) {
   if (!Array.isArray(roundRatings) || roundRatings.length === 0) {
     const err = new Error('No round history');
     err.code = 'NO_ROUNDS';
     throw err;
   }
 
-  const currentPredicted = calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings, { callsite: 'target-rating-calculator' }).rating;
+  const currentPredicted = calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings, { pdgaNumber, callsite: 'target-rating-calculator' }).rating;
   const nextUpdate = getNextPDGAUpdateDate();
   const syntheticDate = new Date(nextUpdate.getTime() - 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000);