Merge pull request 'fix: invalidate stale predicted_rating after PDGA cycle rollover (#29)' (#31) from fix/invalidate-stale-predicted-rating-29 into main

Reviewer 1 flagged: staleness-check read predicted_calculated_at from
the original cachedPlayer snapshot even after recompute, so newly
calculated ratings (predicted_calculated_at = NULL in snapshot)
were immediately nulled by the staleness branch.

Fix: read predicted_calculated_at from updatedPlayer too.

Reviewer 2 nit: rename thisMonths → secondTuesday for consistency
with the original variable name in getNextPDGAUpdateDate.

package-lock.json

@@ -1,12 +1,12 @@
 {
   "name": "pdga-ratings",
-  "version": "1.4.0",
+  "version": "1.4.2",
   "lockfileVersion": 3,
   "requires": true,
   "packages": {
     "": {
       "name": "pdga-ratings",
-      "version": "1.4.0",
+      "version": "1.4.2",
       "dependencies": {
         "ejs": "^4.0.1",
         "express": "^4.18.2",

package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "pdga-ratings",
-  "version": "1.4.0",
+  "version": "1.4.2",
   "description": "PDGA rating scraper and display",
   "main": "server.js",
   "scripts": {

public/css/mobile.css

@@ -342,6 +342,38 @@
         transform: rotate(180deg);
     }
 
+    /* Refresh button: hidden by default, revealed only when the card is open.
+       Larger than the desktop icon to give a comfortable touch target (≥44px). */
+    .m-card__head .m-refresh-icon {
+        display: none;
+    }
+
+    .m-card.is-open .m-card__head .m-refresh-icon {
+        display: grid;
+        width: 44px;
+        height: 44px;
+        margin-left: 0;
+        font-size: 15px;
+        opacity: 0.7;
+        flex-shrink: 0;
+    }
+
+    .m-card.is-open .m-card__head .m-refresh-icon:active {
+        opacity: 1;
+        color: var(--accent);
+    }
+
+    /* Spin only the icon glyph, not the 44px button box — otherwise the button's
+       lingering touch-hover frame (background + border) rotates too, which looks odd. */
+    .m-card.is-open .m-card__head .m-refresh-icon.spinning {
+        animation: none;
+    }
+
+    .m-card.is-open .m-card__head .m-refresh-icon.spinning i {
+        display: inline-block;
+        animation: spin 0.8s linear infinite;
+    }
+
     .m-card__body {
         display: grid;
         grid-template-columns: minmax(0, 1fr) auto;

public/js/players.js

@@ -131,10 +131,16 @@ async function clearCache() {
 // Refreshes both the current rating and the prediction in one click, then
 // re-swaps the table so every derived value (deltas, pills, sparkline) reflects
 // the new state. Cheaper than fine-grained DOM updates and guaranteed consistent
-// because the server renders the truth.
+// because the server renders the truth. The mobile cards partial is included
+// inside ratings-table, so swapping #ratings-table re-renders both views at once.
 async function refreshPlayerData(pdgaNumber) {
-    const icon = document.querySelector(`#row-${pdgaNumber} .cell-actions .refresh-icon`);
-    if (icon) icon.classList.add('spinning');
+    // The desktop row exists in the DOM even on mobile (hidden via CSS), so spin
+    // both possible icons; only the one visible in the active viewport is seen.
+    const icons = [
+        document.querySelector(`#row-${pdgaNumber} .cell-actions .refresh-icon`),
+        document.querySelector(`#m-card-${pdgaNumber} .m-refresh-icon`)
+    ].filter(Boolean);
+    icons.forEach(icon => icon.classList.add('spinning'));
     try {
         await Promise.allSettled([
             fetch(`/api/refresh-player/${pdgaNumber}`, { method: 'POST' }),
@@ -144,7 +150,7 @@ async function refreshPlayerData(pdgaNumber) {
     } catch (error) {
         console.error('Error refreshing player data:', error);
     } finally {
-        if (icon) icon.classList.remove('spinning');
+        icons.forEach(icon => icon.classList.remove('spinning'));
     }
 }
 

src/db.js

@@ -76,6 +76,16 @@ function initializeDatabase() {
               else logger.info('Successfully added cutoff_rating column');
             });
           }
+
+          const hasPredictedCalculatedAt = columns.some(col => col.name === 'predicted_calculated_at');
+
+          if (!hasPredictedCalculatedAt) {
+            logger.info('Adding predicted_calculated_at column to players table...');
+            db.run(`ALTER TABLE players ADD COLUMN predicted_calculated_at DATETIME DEFAULT NULL`, (err) => {
+              if (err) logger.error('Error adding predicted_calculated_at column:', err.message);
+              else logger.info('Successfully added predicted_calculated_at column');
+            });
+          }
         });
       });
 

src/models/player.js

@@ -1,6 +1,5 @@
 const { db } = require('../db');
 const { parseDate } = require('../services/rating-calculator');
-const logger = require('../logger');
 
 function getPlayerFromDB(pdgaNumber) {
   return new Promise((resolve, reject) => {
@@ -17,14 +16,28 @@ function getPlayerFromDB(pdgaNumber) {
 
 function savePlayerToDB(playerData) {
   return new Promise((resolve, reject) => {
-    logger.info({ pdgaNumber: playerData.pdgaNumber, name: playerData.name, currentRating: playerData.rating, ratingChange: playerData.ratingChange, resetColumns: ['predicted_rating', 'std_dev', 'excluded_rounds_count', 'cutoff_rating', 'last_round_update'] }, 'INSERT OR REPLACE on players — derived columns will be reset to NULL');
     db.run(
-      `INSERT OR REPLACE INTO players (pdga_number, name, current_rating, rating_change, last_updated)
-       VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, datetime('now'))`,
+      // UPSERT (not INSERT OR REPLACE): updating in place preserves columns not
+      // listed here — predicted_rating, std_dev, last_round_update,
+      // excluded_rounds_count, cutoff_rating. INSERT OR REPLACE would delete the
+      // existing row and reset those to their DEFAULT (NULL).
+      `INSERT INTO players (pdga_number, name, current_rating, rating_change, last_updated)
+       VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, datetime('now'))
+       ON CONFLICT(pdga_number) DO UPDATE SET
+         name = excluded.name,
+         current_rating = excluded.current_rating,
+         rating_change = excluded.rating_change,
+         last_updated = excluded.last_updated`,
       [playerData.pdgaNumber, playerData.name, playerData.rating, playerData.ratingChange],
       function(err) {
-        if (err) reject(err);
-        else resolve(this.lastID);
+        if (err) return reject(err);
+        // node-sqlite3 leaves lastID = 0 when ON CONFLICT triggers an UPDATE.
+        // Fall back to a SELECT to get the real id in that case.
+        if (this.lastID !== 0) return resolve(this.lastID);
+        db.get('SELECT id FROM players WHERE pdga_number = ?', [playerData.pdgaNumber], (err2, row) => {
+          if (err2) reject(err2);
+          else resolve(row ? row.id : 0);
+        });
       }
     );
   });
@@ -174,28 +187,17 @@ function saveRoundHistoryToDB(pdgaNumber, roundData, isIncremental = false) {
   });
 }
 
-function savePredictedRatingToDB(pdgaNumber, predictedRating, stdDev = null, excludedRoundsCount = null, cutoffRating = null, callsite = 'unknown') {
+function savePredictedRatingToDB(pdgaNumber, predictedRating, stdDev = null, excludedRoundsCount = null, cutoffRating = null, calculatedAt = null) {
+  const timestamp = calculatedAt || new Date().toISOString();
   return new Promise((resolve, reject) => {
-    db.get('SELECT predicted_rating AS oldValue FROM players WHERE pdga_number = ?', [pdgaNumber], (selectErr, row) => {
-      if (selectErr) return reject(selectErr);
-      const oldValue = row ? row.oldValue : null;
-
-      db.run(
-        'UPDATE players SET predicted_rating = ?, std_dev = ?, excluded_rounds_count = ?, cutoff_rating = ? WHERE pdga_number = ?',
-        [predictedRating, stdDev, excludedRoundsCount, cutoffRating, pdgaNumber],
-        function(err) {
-          if (err) return reject(err);
-
-          const logData = { pdgaNumber, oldValue, newValue: predictedRating, callsite };
-          if (predictedRating === 0 && oldValue != null && oldValue > 0) {
-            logger.warn(logData, 'predicted rating overwritten with 0');
-          } else {
-            logger.info(logData, 'predicted rating saved');
-          }
-          resolve();
-        }
-      );
-    });
+    db.run(
+      'UPDATE players SET predicted_rating = ?, std_dev = ?, excluded_rounds_count = ?, cutoff_rating = ?, predicted_calculated_at = ? WHERE pdga_number = ?',
+      [predictedRating, stdDev, excludedRoundsCount, cutoffRating, timestamp, pdgaNumber],
+      function(err) {
+        if (err) reject(err);
+        else resolve();
+      }
+    );
   });
 }
 

src/routes/players.js

@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ const { getOfficialRatingHistory, getOptimizedPlayerRounds } = require('../scrap
 const { launchBrowser } = require('../scrapers/browser');
 const { getPlayerDataFromDB, scrapePDGARating, getAllRatingsFromDB, refreshAllPlayersInDB, getPredictedRatingFromDB, formatDisplayDate } = require('../services/player-service');
 const { getTopbarLocals } = require('../services/topbar-service');
-const { calculatePredictedRating, getNextPDGAUpdateDate } = require('../services/rating-calculator');
+const { calculatePredictedRating } = require('../services/rating-calculator');
 const { calculateRequiredAverage } = require('../services/target-rating-calculator');
 const logger = require('../logger');
 
@@ -19,7 +19,6 @@ router.post('/api/refresh-all', async (req, res, next) => {
     return res.status(409).json({ error: 'Refresh already in progress' });
   }
   refreshInProgress = true;
-  logger.info({ pdgaNumber: 'all' }, 'refresh-all triggered — will invoke savePlayerToDB for all players (INSERT OR REPLACE wipes derived columns)');
   try {
     try {
       await refreshAllPlayersInDB();
@@ -254,7 +253,7 @@ router.post('/api/add-player', async (req, res) => {
 router.post('/api/refresh-player/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
   try {
     const { pdgaNumber } = req.params;
-    logger.info({ pdgaNumber }, 'refresh-player triggered — will invoke savePlayerToDB (INSERT OR REPLACE wipes derived columns)');
+    logger.info(`Manually refreshing player data for PDGA ${pdgaNumber}`);
 
     const html = await fetchPlayerDataHTTP(pdgaNumber);
     const playerData = parsePlayerData(html, pdgaNumber);
@@ -350,45 +349,48 @@ router.post('/api/refresh-round-history/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
 
     const isIncremental = !!sinceDate;
 
-    logger.info({ pdgaNumber, lastRoundUpdate, isIncremental }, 'refresh-round-history started');
+    logger.info(`${isIncremental ? 'Incrementally updating' : 'Fully refreshing'} round history for PDGA ${pdgaNumber}${sinceDate ? ` since ${sinceDate.toDateString()}` : ''}`);
 
     browser = await launchBrowser();
-
+    
     let officialHistory;
     try {
       officialHistory = await getOfficialRatingHistory(browser, pdgaNumber);
       if (officialHistory.length > 0) {
         await saveRatingHistoryToDB(pdgaNumber, officialHistory);
       }
-      logger.info({ pdgaNumber, step: 'official_history_scrape', success: officialHistory.length > 0, count: officialHistory.length }, 'official history scrape completed');
     } catch (historyError) {
-      logger.warn({ pdgaNumber, step: 'official_history_scrape', success: false, error: historyError.message }, 'official history scrape failed');
+      logger.error('Failed to fetch official history:', historyError.message);
       officialHistory = [];
     }
-
+    
     let allRounds = [];
     try {
+      logger.info(`Using optimized approach: /details + new tournaments only for PDGA ${pdgaNumber}...`);
       allRounds = await getOptimizedPlayerRounds(browser, pdgaNumber);
-
+      
       if (allRounds.length > 0) {
         const roundsForDB = allRounds.map(round => ({
           rating: round.rating,
           date: round.date,
           competition: round.competition
         }));
-
+        
         await saveRoundHistoryToDB(pdgaNumber, roundsForDB, false);
+        logger.info(`✓ Saved ${allRounds.length} rounds using optimized approach`);
+        
         await updateLastRoundUpdateDate(pdgaNumber);
+      } else {
+        logger.info('ℹ No rounds found');
       }
-      logger.info({ pdgaNumber, step: 'rounds_scrape_save', success: allRounds.length > 0, count: allRounds.length, lastRoundUpdateTouched: allRounds.length > 0 }, 'rounds scrape and save completed');
     } catch (detailsError) {
-      logger.warn({ pdgaNumber, step: 'rounds_scrape_save', success: false, error: detailsError.message }, 'rounds scrape and save failed');
+      logger.error('Failed to fetch rounds using optimized approach:', detailsError.message);
       allRounds = [];
     }
-
+    
     await browser.close();
     browser = null;
-
+    
     const dbRounds = await getRoundHistoryFromDB(pdgaNumber);
     const roundsForPrediction = dbRounds.map(round => ({
       rating: round.rating,
@@ -396,10 +398,9 @@ router.post('/api/refresh-round-history/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
       competition: round.competition_name
     }));
 
-    const result = calculatePredictedRating(roundsForPrediction, { pdgaNumber, callsite: 'refresh-round-history' });
-    logger.info({ pdgaNumber, step: 'predicted_calc', rating: result.rating, stdDev: result.stdDev, excludedRoundsCount: result.excludedRoundsCount }, 'predicted rating calculation step completed');
+    const result = calculatePredictedRating(roundsForPrediction);
 
-    await savePredictedRatingToDB(pdgaNumber, result.rating, result.stdDev, result.excludedRoundsCount, result.cutoffRating, 'refresh-round-history');
+    await savePredictedRatingToDB(pdgaNumber, result.rating, result.stdDev, result.excludedRoundsCount, result.cutoffRating);
 
     const officialCount = allRounds.filter(r => r.source === 'official').length;
     const newCount = allRounds.filter(r => r.source === 'new').length;
@@ -417,8 +418,10 @@ router.post('/api/refresh-round-history/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
       message: `Used /details (${officialCount} rounds) + new tournaments (${newCount} rounds)`
     });
   } catch (error) {
-    logger.error({ pdgaNumber, step: 'unknown_or_orchestration', errorType: error.constructor.name, errorMessage: error.message }, 'refresh-round-history failed');
-
+    logger.error(`=== Error refreshing round history for PDGA ${pdgaNumber} ===`);
+    logger.error('Error type:', error.constructor.name);
+    logger.error('Error message:', error.message);
+    
     if (browser) {
       try {
         await browser.close();
@@ -426,14 +429,14 @@ router.post('/api/refresh-round-history/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
         logger.error('Error closing browser:', closeError.message);
       }
     }
-
-    res.status(500).json({
+    
+    res.status(500).json({ 
       error: 'Failed to refresh round history',
       details: error.message,
       errorType: error.constructor.name,
       timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
-      suggestion: error.message.includes('socket hang up') ?
-        'Rate limited by PDGA - try again in a few minutes.' :
+      suggestion: error.message.includes('socket hang up') ? 
+        'Rate limited by PDGA - try again in a few minutes.' : 
         error.message.includes('timeout') ?
         'PDGA pages are loading slowly - try again later.' :
         'Tournament scraping failed - check server logs for details'
@@ -441,46 +444,6 @@ router.post('/api/refresh-round-history/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
   }
 });
 
-router.get('/api/admin/player-state/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
-  const { pdgaNumber } = req.params;
-  try {
-    const player = await getPlayerFromDB(pdgaNumber);
-    if (!player) {
-      return res.status(404).json({ error: 'Player not found', pdgaNumber: parseInt(pdgaNumber) });
-    }
-    const rounds = await getRoundHistoryFromDB(pdgaNumber);
-    const cutoff = getNextPDGAUpdateDate();
-    const twelveMonthsAgo = new Date(cutoff); twelveMonthsAgo.setFullYear(cutoff.getFullYear() - 1);
-    const twentyFourMonthsAgo = new Date(cutoff); twentyFourMonthsAgo.setFullYear(cutoff.getFullYear() - 2);
-
-    const roundsInLast12mo = rounds.filter(r => new Date(r.date) >= twelveMonthsAgo).length;
-    const roundsInLast24mo = rounds.filter(r => new Date(r.date) >= twentyFourMonthsAgo).length;
-    const dates = rounds.map(r => r.date).sort();
-
-    res.json({
-      pdgaNumber: player.pdga_number,
-      name: player.name,
-      currentRating: player.current_rating,
-      ratingChange: player.rating_change,
-      predictedRating: player.predicted_rating,
-      stdDev: player.std_dev,
-      excludedRoundsCount: player.excluded_rounds_count,
-      cutoffRating: player.cutoff_rating,
-      lastUpdated: player.last_updated,
-      lastRoundUpdate: player.last_round_update,
-      cutoffDate: cutoff.toISOString(),
-      roundCount: rounds.length,
-      roundsInLast12mo,
-      roundsInLast24mo,
-      oldestRound: dates[0] ?? null,
-      newestRound: dates[dates.length - 1] ?? null
-    });
-  } catch (err) {
-    logger.error({ err, pdgaNumber }, 'admin player-state endpoint failed');
-    res.status(500).json({ error: 'Failed to fetch player state', details: err.message });
-  }
-});
-
 router.post('/api/calculate-target-rating/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
   const { pdgaNumber } = req.params;
   const pdgaNum = parseInt(pdgaNumber, 10);
@@ -520,7 +483,7 @@ router.post('/api/calculate-target-rating/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
       competition: r.competition_name
     }));
 
-    const result = calculateRequiredAverage(roundRatings, target, numRounds, pdgaNum);
+    const result = calculateRequiredAverage(roundRatings, target, numRounds);
 
     logger.info(`Target rating calc for PDGA ${pdgaNum}: target=${target} rounds=${numRounds} -> avg=${result.requiredAverage}`);
 

src/scrapers/player-puppeteer.js

@@ -156,81 +156,154 @@ async function getNewTournamentRounds(browser, pdgaNumber, afterDate) {
     
     logger.info(`Looking for tournaments after ${afterDate.toDateString()}...`);
     
-    const newTournamentUrls = await page.evaluate((afterTimestamp) => {
+    const { urls: newTournamentUrls, counts } = await page.evaluate((afterTimestamp) => {
       const afterDate = new Date(afterTimestamp);
       const tables = document.querySelectorAll('table[id*="player-results"]');
       const urls = [];
-      
-      tables.forEach(table => {
-        const rows = table.querySelectorAll('tbody tr');
+      const seenUrls = new Set();
+      let table = 0;
+      let recentEvents = 0;
+      let recentEventsAnchorsSeen = 0;
+      let recentEventsSkippedDuplicates = 0;
+
+      tables.forEach(tbl => {
+        const rows = tbl.querySelectorAll('tbody tr');
         rows.forEach(row => {
           const dateCell = row.querySelector('.dates');
           const tournamentCell = row.querySelector('.tournament a');
-          
+
           if (dateCell && tournamentCell) {
             const dateText = dateCell.innerText.trim();
             const dateMatch = dateText.match(/\d{1,2}-[A-Za-z]{3}-\d{4}/);
-            
+
             if (dateMatch) {
               const dateStr = dateMatch[0];
               const date = new Date(dateStr);
-              
+
               if (date > afterDate) {
                 const href = tournamentCell.getAttribute('href');
                 if (href) {
-                  urls.push({
-                    url: `https://www.pdga.com${href}`,
-                    date: dateStr,
-                    name: tournamentCell.innerText.trim()
-                  });
+                  const absoluteUrl = new URL(href, location.origin).href;
+                  if (!seenUrls.has(absoluteUrl)) {
+                    seenUrls.add(absoluteUrl);
+                    urls.push({
+                      url: absoluteUrl,
+                      date: dateStr,
+                      name: tournamentCell.innerText.trim(),
+                      source: 'table'
+                    });
+                    table++;
+                  }
                 }
               }
             }
           }
         });
       });
-      
-      return urls;
+
+      const recentAnchors = document.querySelectorAll('.recent-events a[href*="/tour/event/"]');
+      recentAnchors.forEach(anchor => {
+        recentEventsAnchorsSeen++;
+        const href = anchor.getAttribute('href');
+        if (href) {
+          const absoluteUrl = new URL(href, location.origin).href;
+          if (seenUrls.has(absoluteUrl)) {
+            recentEventsSkippedDuplicates++;
+          } else {
+            seenUrls.add(absoluteUrl);
+            urls.push({
+              url: absoluteUrl,
+              date: null,
+              name: anchor.innerText.trim() || 'Recent event',
+              source: 'recent-events'
+            });
+            recentEvents++;
+          }
+        }
+      });
+
+      return { urls, counts: { table, recentEvents, recentEventsAnchorsSeen, recentEventsSkippedDuplicates } };
     }, afterDate.getTime());
-    
-    logger.info(`Found ${newTournamentUrls.length} new tournaments after ${afterDate.toDateString()}`);
+
+    logger.info({
+      pdgaNumber,
+      afterDate: afterDate.toISOString(),
+      tableMatches: counts.table,
+      recentEventsMatches: counts.recentEvents,
+      recentEventsAnchorsSeen: counts.recentEventsAnchorsSeen,
+      recentEventsSkippedDuplicates: counts.recentEventsSkippedDuplicates,
+      totalUrlsToScrape: newTournamentUrls.length
+    }, 'new tournament URL discovery completed');
     
     for (const tournamentData of newTournamentUrls) {
       try {
-        logger.info(`Scraping new tournament: ${tournamentData.name} (${tournamentData.date})`);
-        
+        if (tournamentData.source === 'recent-events') {
+          logger.debug({ pdgaNumber, url: tournamentData.url }, 'recent-events: scraping tournament');
+        } else {
+          logger.info(`Scraping new tournament: ${tournamentData.name} (${tournamentData.date})`);
+        }
+
         await page.goto(tournamentData.url, { waitUntil: 'domcontentloaded', timeout: 30000 });
         await new Promise(r => setTimeout(r, 500));
-        
+
+        let parsedDate;
+        if (tournamentData.date !== null) {
+          parsedDate = parseDate(tournamentData.date);
+        } else {
+          const eventDateStr = await page.evaluate(() => {
+            const body = document.body ? document.body.innerText : '';
+            const m = body.match(/\d{1,2}\s+to\s+\d{1,2}-[A-Za-z]{3}-\d{4}/)
+                   || body.match(/\d{1,2}-[A-Za-z]{3}-\d{4}/);
+            return m ? m[0] : null;
+          });
+
+          if (eventDateStr) {
+            parsedDate = parseDate(eventDateStr);
+            if (!(parsedDate > afterDate)) {
+              logger.warn({
+                pdgaNumber,
+                url: tournamentData.url,
+                eventDateStr,
+                parsedDate: parsedDate ? parsedDate.toISOString() : null,
+                afterDate: afterDate.toISOString()
+              }, 'recent-events: extracted event date is not newer than afterDate, likely captured a non-tournament date — skipping');
+              continue;
+            }
+            logger.debug({ pdgaNumber, url: tournamentData.url, eventDateStr }, 'recent-events: extracted date from event page');
+          } else {
+            logger.warn({ pdgaNumber, url: tournamentData.url }, 'recent-events: could not extract date from event page, skipping tournament');
+            continue;
+          }
+        }
+
         const roundRatings = await page.evaluate((pdgaNum) => {
           const rows = document.querySelectorAll('tr');
-          
+
           for (const row of rows) {
             const cells = row.querySelectorAll('td');
-            const hasPlayerNumber = Array.from(cells).some(cell => 
+            const hasPlayerNumber = Array.from(cells).some(cell =>
               cell.innerText && cell.innerText.includes(pdgaNum.toString())
             );
-            
+
             if (hasPlayerNumber) {
               const roundRatingCells = row.querySelectorAll('td.round-rating');
               const ratings = [];
-              
+
               roundRatingCells.forEach(cell => {
                 const rating = parseInt(cell.innerText.trim());
                 if (!isNaN(rating) && rating > 0) {
                   ratings.push(rating);
                 }
               });
-              
+
               return ratings;
             }
           }
-          
+
           return [];
         }, pdgaNumber);
-        
+
         if (roundRatings.length > 0) {
-          const parsedDate = parseDate(tournamentData.date);
           roundRatings.forEach(rating => {
             newRounds.push({
               rating,
@@ -238,10 +311,10 @@ async function getNewTournamentRounds(browser, pdgaNumber, afterDate) {
               competition: tournamentData.name
             });
           });
-          
+
           logger.info(`Found ${roundRatings.length} round ratings for ${tournamentData.name}`);
         }
-        
+
       } catch (error) {
         logger.error(`Error scraping tournament ${tournamentData.name}: ${error.message}`);
       }

src/services/player-service.js

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 const { db } = require('../db');
 const { getPlayerFromDB, getRoundHistoryFromDB, savePredictedRatingToDB, savePlayerToDB, getMonthlyHistory, getAllMonthlyHistoriesFromDB, getAllRatingHistoriesFromDB } = require('../models/player');
 const { fetchPlayerDataHTTP, parsePlayerData } = require('../scrapers/player-http');
-const { calculatePredictedRating } = require('./rating-calculator');
+const { calculatePredictedRating, getPreviousPDGAUpdateDate } = require('./rating-calculator');
 const logger = require('../logger');
 
 function formatDisplayDate(dateStr) {
@@ -36,32 +36,43 @@ async function getPlayerDataFromDB(pdgaNumber, { includeMonthlyHistory = true }
   try {
     const cachedPlayer = await getPlayerFromDB(pdgaNumber);
     if (cachedPlayer) {
-      logger.debug({ pdgaNumber }, 'Loading player from DB (source of truth)');
+      logger.debug(`Loading PDGA ${pdgaNumber} from DB (source of truth)`);
 
       let predictedRating = cachedPlayer.predicted_rating;
       let stdDev = cachedPlayer.std_dev;
       let excludedRoundsCount = cachedPlayer.excluded_rounds_count;
       let cutoffRating = cachedPlayer.cutoff_rating;
-      let recomputeAttempted = false;
+      let predictedCalculatedAtRaw = cachedPlayer.predicted_calculated_at;
       if (!predictedRating || predictedRating === 0) {
-        recomputeAttempted = true;
-        logger.debug({ pdgaNumber, dbValue: cachedPlayer.predicted_rating }, 'lazy recompute triggered for predicted_rating');
         predictedRating = await getPredictedRatingFromDB(pdgaNumber);
         const updatedPlayer = await getPlayerFromDB(pdgaNumber);
         stdDev = updatedPlayer?.std_dev;
         excludedRoundsCount = updatedPlayer?.excluded_rounds_count;
         cutoffRating = updatedPlayer?.cutoff_rating;
-        if (!predictedRating || predictedRating === 0) {
-          logger.info({ pdgaNumber, recomputedValue: predictedRating }, 'lazy recompute did not yield a positive predicted rating');
-        }
+        predictedCalculatedAtRaw = updatedPlayer?.predicted_calculated_at;
+      }
+
+      // Staleness-check: invalidate cached predicted_rating if the PDGA cycle has
+      // rolled over since it was calculated. Don't recompute — round_history may be
+      // equally stale. UI will show "—" until the next manual refresh.
+      const predictedCalculatedAt = predictedCalculatedAtRaw
+        ? new Date(predictedCalculatedAtRaw)
+        : null;
+      const previousUpdate = getPreviousPDGAUpdateDate();
+      const hasPredicted = predictedRating !== null && predictedRating !== 0;
+      const isStale = hasPredicted && (
+        predictedCalculatedAt === null || predictedCalculatedAt < previousUpdate
+      );
+      if (isStale) {
+        logger.debug(`PDGA ${pdgaNumber}: predicted rating stale (calculated ${predictedCalculatedAt?.toISOString() ?? 'unknown'}, cycle rolled ${previousUpdate.toISOString()})`);
+        predictedRating = null;
+        stdDev = null;
+        excludedRoundsCount = null;
+        cutoffRating = null;
       }
 
       const rating = cachedPlayer.current_rating;
       const rawRatingChange = cachedPlayer.rating_change;
-      // Only warn about ≤0 if it wasn't already explained by a failed recompute (which has its own log)
-      if (!recomputeAttempted && predictedRating != null && predictedRating <= 0) {
-        logger.warn({ pdgaNumber, dbValue: predictedRating }, 'predicted rating present but <= 0 in DB without recompute — rendered as empty');
-      }
       const resolvedPredicted = predictedRating > 0 ? predictedRating : null;
       const resolvedStdDev = stdDev > 0 ? stdDev : null;
 
@@ -150,28 +161,22 @@ async function scrapePDGARating(pdgaNumber, retries = 3) {
 async function getPredictedRatingFromDB(pdgaNumber) {
   try {
     const roundHistory = await getRoundHistoryFromDB(pdgaNumber);
-    if (roundHistory.length === 0) {
-      logger.info({ pdgaNumber, reason: 'no_round_history_in_db' }, 'predicted recompute returning 0 — no round history available');
-      return 0;
+    if (roundHistory.length > 0) {
+      logger.debug(`Using ${roundHistory.length} cached rounds for PDGA ${pdgaNumber} prediction`);
+
+      const roundRatings = roundHistory.map(round => ({
+        rating: round.rating,
+        date: new Date(round.date),
+        competition: round.competition_name || 'Unknown'
+      }));
+
+      const result = calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings);
+
+      await savePredictedRatingToDB(pdgaNumber, result.rating, result.stdDev, result.excludedRoundsCount, result.cutoffRating);
+
+      return result.rating;
     }
-
-    logger.debug({ pdgaNumber, cachedRounds: roundHistory.length }, 'Using cached rounds for prediction');
-
-    const roundRatings = roundHistory.map(round => ({
-      rating: round.rating,
-      date: new Date(round.date),
-      competition: round.competition_name || 'Unknown'
-    }));
-
-    const result = calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings, { pdgaNumber, callsite: 'getPredictedRatingFromDB' });
-
-    if (result.rating === 0) {
-      logger.warn({ pdgaNumber, roundsInDb: roundHistory.length }, 'predicted recompute returned 0 despite having rounds in DB');
-    }
-
-    await savePredictedRatingToDB(pdgaNumber, result.rating, result.stdDev, result.excludedRoundsCount, result.cutoffRating, 'lazy-recompute');
-
-    return result.rating;
+    return 0;
   } catch (err) {
     logger.error(`Error getting predicted rating from DB for ${pdgaNumber}:`, err.message);
     return 0;

src/services/rating-calculator.js

@@ -1,5 +1,3 @@
-const logger = require('../logger');
-
 function parseDate(dateStr) {
   const multiDayMatch = dateStr.match(/^(\d{1,2})(-([A-Za-z]{3}))?(\s+to\s+)(\d{1,2})-([A-Za-z]{3})-(\d{4})$/);
   if (multiDayMatch) {
@@ -39,39 +37,43 @@ function parseDate(dateStr) {
   return new Date(dateStr);
 }
 
+function secondTuesdayOf(year, month) {
+  const firstDay = new Date(year, month, 1);
+  const daysUntilTuesday = (2 - firstDay.getDay() + 7) % 7;
+  const firstTuesday = new Date(year, month, 1 + daysUntilTuesday);
+  const secondTuesday = new Date(firstTuesday);
+  secondTuesday.setDate(firstTuesday.getDate() + 7);
+  return secondTuesday;
+}
+
 function getNextPDGAUpdateDate() {
   const today = new Date();
   const currentMonth = today.getMonth();
   const currentYear = today.getFullYear();
 
-  const firstDayOfMonth = new Date(currentYear, currentMonth, 1);
-  const firstTuesday = new Date(firstDayOfMonth);
-
-  const daysUntilTuesday = (2 - firstDayOfMonth.getDay() + 7) % 7;
-  firstTuesday.setDate(1 + daysUntilTuesday);
-
-  const secondTuesday = new Date(firstTuesday);
-  secondTuesday.setDate(firstTuesday.getDate() + 7);
+  const secondTuesday = secondTuesdayOf(currentYear, currentMonth);
 
   if (today <= secondTuesday) {
     return secondTuesday;
   } else {
     const nextMonth = currentMonth === 11 ? 0 : currentMonth + 1;
     const nextYear = currentMonth === 11 ? currentYear + 1 : currentYear;
-
-    const firstDayNextMonth = new Date(nextYear, nextMonth, 1);
-    const firstTuesdayNext = new Date(firstDayNextMonth);
-
-    const daysUntilTuesdayNext = (2 - firstDayNextMonth.getDay() + 7) % 7;
-    firstTuesdayNext.setDate(1 + daysUntilTuesdayNext);
-
-    const secondTuesdayNext = new Date(firstTuesdayNext);
-    secondTuesdayNext.setDate(firstTuesdayNext.getDate() + 7);
-
-    return secondTuesdayNext;
+    return secondTuesdayOf(nextYear, nextMonth);
   }
 }
 
+function getPreviousPDGAUpdateDate() {
+  const today = new Date();
+  const year = today.getFullYear();
+  const month = today.getMonth();
+  const secondTuesday = secondTuesdayOf(year, month);
+  if (today > secondTuesday) return secondTuesday;
+  // Otherwise: last month's second Tuesday
+  const prevMonth = month === 0 ? 11 : month - 1;
+  const prevYear = month === 0 ? year - 1 : year;
+  return secondTuesdayOf(prevYear, prevMonth);
+}
+
 function calculateStandardDeviation(ratings) {
   if (!ratings || ratings.length === 0) return 0;
 
@@ -81,19 +83,15 @@ function calculateStandardDeviation(ratings) {
   return Math.sqrt(variance);
 }
 
-function calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings, context = {}) {
-  const pdgaNumber = context.pdgaNumber ?? null;
-  const callsite = context.callsite ?? 'unknown';
+function calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings) {
   const debugLog = [];
   debugLog.push('=== PDGA RATING CALCULATION (Following Official Rules) ===');
 
   if (!roundRatings || roundRatings.length === 0) {
     debugLog.push('❌ No rounds provided for prediction');
-    logger.warn({ pdgaNumber, callsite, reason: 'no_rounds' }, 'predicted rating computed as 0');
     return { rating: 0, debugLog, excludedRoundsCount: null, cutoffRating: null };
   }
 
-  logger.info({ pdgaNumber, callsite, inputRounds: roundRatings.length }, 'predicted rating calculation started');
   debugLog.push(`📊 Starting with ${roundRatings.length} total rounds`);
 
   const nextUpdateDate = getNextPDGAUpdateDate();
@@ -106,7 +104,6 @@ function calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings, context = {}) {
 
   if (allSortedRounds.length === 0) {
     debugLog.push('❌ No valid rounds after filtering for update date');
-    logger.warn({ pdgaNumber, callsite, reason: 'no_rounds_after_date_filter', inputRounds: roundRatings.length, nextUpdateDate: nextUpdateDate.toISOString() }, 'predicted rating computed as 0');
     return { rating: 0, debugLog, excludedRoundsCount: null, cutoffRating: null };
   }
 
@@ -124,9 +121,8 @@ function calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings, context = {}) {
   debugLog.push('🗓️  12-MONTH FILTERING:');
   debugLog.push(`✅ Rounds in last 12 months: ${eligibleRounds.length}`);
 
-  let twentyFourMonthsBeforeUpdate = null;
   if (eligibleRounds.length < 8) {
-    twentyFourMonthsBeforeUpdate = new Date(nextUpdateDate);
+    const twentyFourMonthsBeforeUpdate = new Date(nextUpdateDate);
     twentyFourMonthsBeforeUpdate.setFullYear(twentyFourMonthsBeforeUpdate.getFullYear() - 2);
 
     eligibleRounds = allSortedRounds.filter(r => r.date >= twentyFourMonthsBeforeUpdate);
@@ -135,7 +131,6 @@ function calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings, context = {}) {
 
   if (eligibleRounds.length === 0) {
     debugLog.push('❌ No eligible rounds found');
-    logger.warn({ pdgaNumber, callsite, reason: 'no_eligible_rounds', afterDateFilter: allSortedRounds.length, twelveMonthCutoff: twelveMonthsBeforeUpdate.toISOString(), twentyFourMonthCutoff: twentyFourMonthsBeforeUpdate ? twentyFourMonthsBeforeUpdate.toISOString() : null }, 'predicted rating computed as 0');
     return { rating: 0, debugLog, excludedRoundsCount: null, cutoffRating: null };
   }
 
@@ -244,20 +239,7 @@ function calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings, context = {}) {
   debugLog.push(`   Final Rating: ${finalRating}`);
   debugLog.push('=== END PDGA CALCULATION ===');
 
-  logger.info({
-    pdgaNumber,
-    callsite,
-    finalRating,
-    inputRounds: roundRatings.length,
-    afterDateFilter: allSortedRounds.length,
-    eligibleRounds: eligibleRounds.length,
-    outlierExclusionApplied: workingRatings.length >= 7,
-    doubleWeightingApplied: workingRatings.length >= 9,
-    excludedRoundsCount,
-    cutoffRating
-  }, 'predicted rating calculated');
-
   return { rating: finalRating, stdDev: Math.round(stdDev), debugLog, excludedRoundsCount, cutoffRating };
 }
 
-module.exports = { parseDate, getNextPDGAUpdateDate, calculatePredictedRating, calculateStandardDeviation };
+module.exports = { parseDate, getNextPDGAUpdateDate, getPreviousPDGAUpdateDate, calculatePredictedRating, calculateStandardDeviation };

src/services/target-rating-calculator.js

@@ -1,14 +1,14 @@
 const { calculatePredictedRating, getNextPDGAUpdateDate } = require('./rating-calculator');
 const logger = require('../logger');
 
-function calculateRequiredAverage(roundRatings, targetRating, numRounds, pdgaNumber) {
+function calculateRequiredAverage(roundRatings, targetRating, numRounds) {
   if (!Array.isArray(roundRatings) || roundRatings.length === 0) {
     const err = new Error('No round history');
     err.code = 'NO_ROUNDS';
     throw err;
   }
 
-  const currentPredicted = calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings, { pdgaNumber, callsite: 'target-rating-calculator' }).rating;
+  const currentPredicted = calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings).rating;
   const nextUpdate = getNextPDGAUpdateDate();
   const syntheticDate = new Date(nextUpdate.getTime() - 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000);
 

views/partials/ratings-cards.ejs

@@ -65,6 +65,11 @@ function renderSparkline(values, opts) {
                 <span class="m-player-name"><%= player.name %></span>
                 <span class="m-pdga-num">#<%= player.pdgaNumber %></span>
             </div>
+            <button class="icon-btn refresh-icon m-refresh-icon" type="button"
+                    onclick="event.stopPropagation(); refreshPlayerData(<%= player.pdgaNumber %>)"
+                    title="Refresh rating + prediction" aria-label="Refresh rating and prediction">
+                <i class="fas fa-sync-alt"></i>
+            </button>
             <span class="m-chevron">&#9660;</span>
         </div>