chore: address review feedback on predicted rating logging (#11)

- align diagnostic endpoint date windows with getNextPDGAUpdateDate
- pass pdgaNumber to initial target-rating calculation for log attribution
- avoid double log when lazy-recompute returns 0
- log full error object in admin endpoint catch

package-lock.json

@@ -1,12 +1,12 @@
 {
   "name": "pdga-ratings",
-  "version": "1.4.2",
+  "version": "1.4.0",
   "lockfileVersion": 3,
   "requires": true,
   "packages": {
     "": {
       "name": "pdga-ratings",
-      "version": "1.4.2",
+      "version": "1.4.0",
       "dependencies": {
         "ejs": "^4.0.1",
         "express": "^4.18.2",

package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "pdga-ratings",
-  "version": "1.4.2",
+  "version": "1.4.0",
   "description": "PDGA rating scraper and display",
   "main": "server.js",
   "scripts": {

public/css/mobile.css

@@ -342,38 +342,6 @@
         transform: rotate(180deg);
     }
 
-    /* Refresh button: hidden by default, revealed only when the card is open.
-       Larger than the desktop icon to give a comfortable touch target (≥44px). */
-    .m-card__head .m-refresh-icon {
-        display: none;
-    }
-
-    .m-card.is-open .m-card__head .m-refresh-icon {
-        display: grid;
-        width: 44px;
-        height: 44px;
-        margin-left: 0;
-        font-size: 15px;
-        opacity: 0.7;
-        flex-shrink: 0;
-    }
-
-    .m-card.is-open .m-card__head .m-refresh-icon:active {
-        opacity: 1;
-        color: var(--accent);
-    }
-
-    /* Spin only the icon glyph, not the 44px button box — otherwise the button's
-       lingering touch-hover frame (background + border) rotates too, which looks odd. */
-    .m-card.is-open .m-card__head .m-refresh-icon.spinning {
-        animation: none;
-    }
-
-    .m-card.is-open .m-card__head .m-refresh-icon.spinning i {
-        display: inline-block;
-        animation: spin 0.8s linear infinite;
-    }
-
     .m-card__body {
         display: grid;
         grid-template-columns: minmax(0, 1fr) auto;

public/js/players.js

@@ -131,16 +131,10 @@ async function clearCache() {
 // Refreshes both the current rating and the prediction in one click, then
 // re-swaps the table so every derived value (deltas, pills, sparkline) reflects
 // the new state. Cheaper than fine-grained DOM updates and guaranteed consistent
-// because the server renders the truth. The mobile cards partial is included
-// inside ratings-table, so swapping #ratings-table re-renders both views at once.
+// because the server renders the truth.
 async function refreshPlayerData(pdgaNumber) {
-    // The desktop row exists in the DOM even on mobile (hidden via CSS), so spin
-    // both possible icons; only the one visible in the active viewport is seen.
-    const icons = [
-        document.querySelector(`#row-${pdgaNumber} .cell-actions .refresh-icon`),
-        document.querySelector(`#m-card-${pdgaNumber} .m-refresh-icon`)
-    ].filter(Boolean);
-    icons.forEach(icon => icon.classList.add('spinning'));
+    const icon = document.querySelector(`#row-${pdgaNumber} .cell-actions .refresh-icon`);
+    if (icon) icon.classList.add('spinning');
     try {
         await Promise.allSettled([
             fetch(`/api/refresh-player/${pdgaNumber}`, { method: 'POST' }),
@@ -150,7 +144,7 @@ async function refreshPlayerData(pdgaNumber) {
     } catch (error) {
         console.error('Error refreshing player data:', error);
     } finally {
-        icons.forEach(icon => icon.classList.remove('spinning'));
+        if (icon) icon.classList.remove('spinning');
     }
 }
 

src/db.js

@@ -76,16 +76,6 @@ function initializeDatabase() {
               else logger.info('Successfully added cutoff_rating column');
             });
           }
-
-          const hasPredictedCalculatedAt = columns.some(col => col.name === 'predicted_calculated_at');
-
-          if (!hasPredictedCalculatedAt) {
-            logger.info('Adding predicted_calculated_at column to players table...');
-            db.run(`ALTER TABLE players ADD COLUMN predicted_calculated_at DATETIME DEFAULT NULL`, (err) => {
-              if (err) logger.error('Error adding predicted_calculated_at column:', err.message);
-              else logger.info('Successfully added predicted_calculated_at column');
-            });
-          }
         });
       });
 

src/models/player.js

@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 const { db } = require('../db');
 const { parseDate } = require('../services/rating-calculator');
+const logger = require('../logger');
 
 function getPlayerFromDB(pdgaNumber) {
   return new Promise((resolve, reject) => {
@@ -16,28 +17,14 @@ function getPlayerFromDB(pdgaNumber) {
 
 function savePlayerToDB(playerData) {
   return new Promise((resolve, reject) => {
+    logger.info({ pdgaNumber: playerData.pdgaNumber, name: playerData.name, currentRating: playerData.rating, ratingChange: playerData.ratingChange, resetColumns: ['predicted_rating', 'std_dev', 'excluded_rounds_count', 'cutoff_rating', 'last_round_update'] }, 'INSERT OR REPLACE on players — derived columns will be reset to NULL');
     db.run(
-      // UPSERT (not INSERT OR REPLACE): updating in place preserves columns not
-      // listed here — predicted_rating, std_dev, last_round_update,
-      // excluded_rounds_count, cutoff_rating. INSERT OR REPLACE would delete the
-      // existing row and reset those to their DEFAULT (NULL).
-      `INSERT INTO players (pdga_number, name, current_rating, rating_change, last_updated)
-       VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, datetime('now'))
-       ON CONFLICT(pdga_number) DO UPDATE SET
-         name = excluded.name,
-         current_rating = excluded.current_rating,
-         rating_change = excluded.rating_change,
-         last_updated = excluded.last_updated`,
+      `INSERT OR REPLACE INTO players (pdga_number, name, current_rating, rating_change, last_updated)
+       VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, datetime('now'))`,
       [playerData.pdgaNumber, playerData.name, playerData.rating, playerData.ratingChange],
       function(err) {
-        if (err) return reject(err);
-        // node-sqlite3 leaves lastID = 0 when ON CONFLICT triggers an UPDATE.
-        // Fall back to a SELECT to get the real id in that case.
-        if (this.lastID !== 0) return resolve(this.lastID);
-        db.get('SELECT id FROM players WHERE pdga_number = ?', [playerData.pdgaNumber], (err2, row) => {
-          if (err2) reject(err2);
-          else resolve(row ? row.id : 0);
-        });
+        if (err) reject(err);
+        else resolve(this.lastID);
       }
     );
   });
@@ -187,17 +174,28 @@ function saveRoundHistoryToDB(pdgaNumber, roundData, isIncremental = false) {
   });
 }
 
-function savePredictedRatingToDB(pdgaNumber, predictedRating, stdDev = null, excludedRoundsCount = null, cutoffRating = null, calculatedAt = null) {
-  const timestamp = calculatedAt || new Date().toISOString();
+function savePredictedRatingToDB(pdgaNumber, predictedRating, stdDev = null, excludedRoundsCount = null, cutoffRating = null, callsite = 'unknown') {
   return new Promise((resolve, reject) => {
-    db.run(
-      'UPDATE players SET predicted_rating = ?, std_dev = ?, excluded_rounds_count = ?, cutoff_rating = ?, predicted_calculated_at = ? WHERE pdga_number = ?',
-      [predictedRating, stdDev, excludedRoundsCount, cutoffRating, timestamp, pdgaNumber],
-      function(err) {
-        if (err) reject(err);
-        else resolve();
-      }
-    );
+    db.get('SELECT predicted_rating AS oldValue FROM players WHERE pdga_number = ?', [pdgaNumber], (selectErr, row) => {
+      if (selectErr) return reject(selectErr);
+      const oldValue = row ? row.oldValue : null;
+
+      db.run(
+        'UPDATE players SET predicted_rating = ?, std_dev = ?, excluded_rounds_count = ?, cutoff_rating = ? WHERE pdga_number = ?',
+        [predictedRating, stdDev, excludedRoundsCount, cutoffRating, pdgaNumber],
+        function(err) {
+          if (err) return reject(err);
+
+          const logData = { pdgaNumber, oldValue, newValue: predictedRating, callsite };
+          if (predictedRating === 0 && oldValue != null && oldValue > 0) {
+            logger.warn(logData, 'predicted rating overwritten with 0');
+          } else {
+            logger.info(logData, 'predicted rating saved');
+          }
+          resolve();
+        }
+      );
+    });
   });
 }
 

src/routes/players.js

@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ const { getOfficialRatingHistory, getOptimizedPlayerRounds } = require('../scrap
 const { launchBrowser } = require('../scrapers/browser');
 const { getPlayerDataFromDB, scrapePDGARating, getAllRatingsFromDB, refreshAllPlayersInDB, getPredictedRatingFromDB, formatDisplayDate } = require('../services/player-service');
 const { getTopbarLocals } = require('../services/topbar-service');
-const { calculatePredictedRating } = require('../services/rating-calculator');
+const { calculatePredictedRating, getNextPDGAUpdateDate } = require('../services/rating-calculator');
 const { calculateRequiredAverage } = require('../services/target-rating-calculator');
 const logger = require('../logger');
 
@@ -19,6 +19,7 @@ router.post('/api/refresh-all', async (req, res, next) => {
     return res.status(409).json({ error: 'Refresh already in progress' });
   }
   refreshInProgress = true;
+  logger.info({ pdgaNumber: 'all' }, 'refresh-all triggered — will invoke savePlayerToDB for all players (INSERT OR REPLACE wipes derived columns)');
   try {
     try {
       await refreshAllPlayersInDB();
@@ -253,7 +254,7 @@ router.post('/api/add-player', async (req, res) => {
 router.post('/api/refresh-player/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
   try {
     const { pdgaNumber } = req.params;
-    logger.info(`Manually refreshing player data for PDGA ${pdgaNumber}`);
+    logger.info({ pdgaNumber }, 'refresh-player triggered — will invoke savePlayerToDB (INSERT OR REPLACE wipes derived columns)');
 
     const html = await fetchPlayerDataHTTP(pdgaNumber);
     const playerData = parsePlayerData(html, pdgaNumber);
@@ -349,48 +350,45 @@ router.post('/api/refresh-round-history/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
 
     const isIncremental = !!sinceDate;
 
-    logger.info(`${isIncremental ? 'Incrementally updating' : 'Fully refreshing'} round history for PDGA ${pdgaNumber}${sinceDate ? ` since ${sinceDate.toDateString()}` : ''}`);
+    logger.info({ pdgaNumber, lastRoundUpdate, isIncremental }, 'refresh-round-history started');
 
     browser = await launchBrowser();
-    
+
     let officialHistory;
     try {
       officialHistory = await getOfficialRatingHistory(browser, pdgaNumber);
       if (officialHistory.length > 0) {
         await saveRatingHistoryToDB(pdgaNumber, officialHistory);
       }
+      logger.info({ pdgaNumber, step: 'official_history_scrape', success: officialHistory.length > 0, count: officialHistory.length }, 'official history scrape completed');
     } catch (historyError) {
-      logger.error('Failed to fetch official history:', historyError.message);
+      logger.warn({ pdgaNumber, step: 'official_history_scrape', success: false, error: historyError.message }, 'official history scrape failed');
       officialHistory = [];
     }
-    
+
     let allRounds = [];
     try {
-      logger.info(`Using optimized approach: /details + new tournaments only for PDGA ${pdgaNumber}...`);
       allRounds = await getOptimizedPlayerRounds(browser, pdgaNumber);
-      
+
       if (allRounds.length > 0) {
         const roundsForDB = allRounds.map(round => ({
           rating: round.rating,
           date: round.date,
           competition: round.competition
         }));
-        
+
         await saveRoundHistoryToDB(pdgaNumber, roundsForDB, false);
-        logger.info(`✓ Saved ${allRounds.length} rounds using optimized approach`);
-        
         await updateLastRoundUpdateDate(pdgaNumber);
-      } else {
-        logger.info('ℹ No rounds found');
       }
+      logger.info({ pdgaNumber, step: 'rounds_scrape_save', success: allRounds.length > 0, count: allRounds.length, lastRoundUpdateTouched: allRounds.length > 0 }, 'rounds scrape and save completed');
     } catch (detailsError) {
-      logger.error('Failed to fetch rounds using optimized approach:', detailsError.message);
+      logger.warn({ pdgaNumber, step: 'rounds_scrape_save', success: false, error: detailsError.message }, 'rounds scrape and save failed');
       allRounds = [];
     }
-    
+
     await browser.close();
     browser = null;
-    
+
     const dbRounds = await getRoundHistoryFromDB(pdgaNumber);
     const roundsForPrediction = dbRounds.map(round => ({
       rating: round.rating,
@@ -398,9 +396,10 @@ router.post('/api/refresh-round-history/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
       competition: round.competition_name
     }));
 
-    const result = calculatePredictedRating(roundsForPrediction);
+    const result = calculatePredictedRating(roundsForPrediction, { pdgaNumber, callsite: 'refresh-round-history' });
+    logger.info({ pdgaNumber, step: 'predicted_calc', rating: result.rating, stdDev: result.stdDev, excludedRoundsCount: result.excludedRoundsCount }, 'predicted rating calculation step completed');
 
-    await savePredictedRatingToDB(pdgaNumber, result.rating, result.stdDev, result.excludedRoundsCount, result.cutoffRating);
+    await savePredictedRatingToDB(pdgaNumber, result.rating, result.stdDev, result.excludedRoundsCount, result.cutoffRating, 'refresh-round-history');
 
     const officialCount = allRounds.filter(r => r.source === 'official').length;
     const newCount = allRounds.filter(r => r.source === 'new').length;
@@ -418,10 +417,8 @@ router.post('/api/refresh-round-history/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
       message: `Used /details (${officialCount} rounds) + new tournaments (${newCount} rounds)`
     });
   } catch (error) {
-    logger.error(`=== Error refreshing round history for PDGA ${pdgaNumber} ===`);
-    logger.error('Error type:', error.constructor.name);
-    logger.error('Error message:', error.message);
-    
+    logger.error({ pdgaNumber, step: 'unknown_or_orchestration', errorType: error.constructor.name, errorMessage: error.message }, 'refresh-round-history failed');
+
     if (browser) {
       try {
         await browser.close();
@@ -429,14 +426,14 @@ router.post('/api/refresh-round-history/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
         logger.error('Error closing browser:', closeError.message);
       }
     }
-    
-    res.status(500).json({ 
+
+    res.status(500).json({
       error: 'Failed to refresh round history',
       details: error.message,
       errorType: error.constructor.name,
       timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
-      suggestion: error.message.includes('socket hang up') ? 
-        'Rate limited by PDGA - try again in a few minutes.' : 
+      suggestion: error.message.includes('socket hang up') ?
+        'Rate limited by PDGA - try again in a few minutes.' :
         error.message.includes('timeout') ?
         'PDGA pages are loading slowly - try again later.' :
         'Tournament scraping failed - check server logs for details'
@@ -444,6 +441,46 @@ router.post('/api/refresh-round-history/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
   }
 });
 
+router.get('/api/admin/player-state/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
+  const { pdgaNumber } = req.params;
+  try {
+    const player = await getPlayerFromDB(pdgaNumber);
+    if (!player) {
+      return res.status(404).json({ error: 'Player not found', pdgaNumber: parseInt(pdgaNumber) });
+    }
+    const rounds = await getRoundHistoryFromDB(pdgaNumber);
+    const cutoff = getNextPDGAUpdateDate();
+    const twelveMonthsAgo = new Date(cutoff); twelveMonthsAgo.setFullYear(cutoff.getFullYear() - 1);
+    const twentyFourMonthsAgo = new Date(cutoff); twentyFourMonthsAgo.setFullYear(cutoff.getFullYear() - 2);
+
+    const roundsInLast12mo = rounds.filter(r => new Date(r.date) >= twelveMonthsAgo).length;
+    const roundsInLast24mo = rounds.filter(r => new Date(r.date) >= twentyFourMonthsAgo).length;
+    const dates = rounds.map(r => r.date).sort();
+
+    res.json({
+      pdgaNumber: player.pdga_number,
+      name: player.name,
+      currentRating: player.current_rating,
+      ratingChange: player.rating_change,
+      predictedRating: player.predicted_rating,
+      stdDev: player.std_dev,
+      excludedRoundsCount: player.excluded_rounds_count,
+      cutoffRating: player.cutoff_rating,
+      lastUpdated: player.last_updated,
+      lastRoundUpdate: player.last_round_update,
+      cutoffDate: cutoff.toISOString(),
+      roundCount: rounds.length,
+      roundsInLast12mo,
+      roundsInLast24mo,
+      oldestRound: dates[0] ?? null,
+      newestRound: dates[dates.length - 1] ?? null
+    });
+  } catch (err) {
+    logger.error({ err, pdgaNumber }, 'admin player-state endpoint failed');
+    res.status(500).json({ error: 'Failed to fetch player state', details: err.message });
+  }
+});
+
 router.post('/api/calculate-target-rating/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
   const { pdgaNumber } = req.params;
   const pdgaNum = parseInt(pdgaNumber, 10);
@@ -483,7 +520,7 @@ router.post('/api/calculate-target-rating/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
       competition: r.competition_name
     }));
 
-    const result = calculateRequiredAverage(roundRatings, target, numRounds);
+    const result = calculateRequiredAverage(roundRatings, target, numRounds, pdgaNum);
 
     logger.info(`Target rating calc for PDGA ${pdgaNum}: target=${target} rounds=${numRounds} -> avg=${result.requiredAverage}`);
 

src/scrapers/player-puppeteer.js

@@ -156,154 +156,81 @@ async function getNewTournamentRounds(browser, pdgaNumber, afterDate) {
     
     logger.info(`Looking for tournaments after ${afterDate.toDateString()}...`);
     
-    const { urls: newTournamentUrls, counts } = await page.evaluate((afterTimestamp) => {
+    const newTournamentUrls = await page.evaluate((afterTimestamp) => {
       const afterDate = new Date(afterTimestamp);
       const tables = document.querySelectorAll('table[id*="player-results"]');
       const urls = [];
-      const seenUrls = new Set();
-      let table = 0;
-      let recentEvents = 0;
-      let recentEventsAnchorsSeen = 0;
-      let recentEventsSkippedDuplicates = 0;
-
-      tables.forEach(tbl => {
-        const rows = tbl.querySelectorAll('tbody tr');
+      
+      tables.forEach(table => {
+        const rows = table.querySelectorAll('tbody tr');
         rows.forEach(row => {
           const dateCell = row.querySelector('.dates');
           const tournamentCell = row.querySelector('.tournament a');
-
+          
           if (dateCell && tournamentCell) {
             const dateText = dateCell.innerText.trim();
             const dateMatch = dateText.match(/\d{1,2}-[A-Za-z]{3}-\d{4}/);
-
+            
             if (dateMatch) {
               const dateStr = dateMatch[0];
               const date = new Date(dateStr);
-
+              
               if (date > afterDate) {
                 const href = tournamentCell.getAttribute('href');
                 if (href) {
-                  const absoluteUrl = new URL(href, location.origin).href;
-                  if (!seenUrls.has(absoluteUrl)) {
-                    seenUrls.add(absoluteUrl);
-                    urls.push({
-                      url: absoluteUrl,
-                      date: dateStr,
-                      name: tournamentCell.innerText.trim(),
-                      source: 'table'
-                    });
-                    table++;
-                  }
+                  urls.push({
+                    url: `https://www.pdga.com${href}`,
+                    date: dateStr,
+                    name: tournamentCell.innerText.trim()
+                  });
                 }
               }
             }
           }
         });
       });
-
-      const recentAnchors = document.querySelectorAll('.recent-events a[href*="/tour/event/"]');
-      recentAnchors.forEach(anchor => {
-        recentEventsAnchorsSeen++;
-        const href = anchor.getAttribute('href');
-        if (href) {
-          const absoluteUrl = new URL(href, location.origin).href;
-          if (seenUrls.has(absoluteUrl)) {
-            recentEventsSkippedDuplicates++;
-          } else {
-            seenUrls.add(absoluteUrl);
-            urls.push({
-              url: absoluteUrl,
-              date: null,
-              name: anchor.innerText.trim() || 'Recent event',
-              source: 'recent-events'
-            });
-            recentEvents++;
-          }
-        }
-      });
-
-      return { urls, counts: { table, recentEvents, recentEventsAnchorsSeen, recentEventsSkippedDuplicates } };
+      
+      return urls;
     }, afterDate.getTime());
-
-    logger.info({
-      pdgaNumber,
-      afterDate: afterDate.toISOString(),
-      tableMatches: counts.table,
-      recentEventsMatches: counts.recentEvents,
-      recentEventsAnchorsSeen: counts.recentEventsAnchorsSeen,
-      recentEventsSkippedDuplicates: counts.recentEventsSkippedDuplicates,
-      totalUrlsToScrape: newTournamentUrls.length
-    }, 'new tournament URL discovery completed');
+    
+    logger.info(`Found ${newTournamentUrls.length} new tournaments after ${afterDate.toDateString()}`);
     
     for (const tournamentData of newTournamentUrls) {
       try {
-        if (tournamentData.source === 'recent-events') {
-          logger.debug({ pdgaNumber, url: tournamentData.url }, 'recent-events: scraping tournament');
-        } else {
-          logger.info(`Scraping new tournament: ${tournamentData.name} (${tournamentData.date})`);
-        }
-
+        logger.info(`Scraping new tournament: ${tournamentData.name} (${tournamentData.date})`);
+        
         await page.goto(tournamentData.url, { waitUntil: 'domcontentloaded', timeout: 30000 });
         await new Promise(r => setTimeout(r, 500));
-
-        let parsedDate;
-        if (tournamentData.date !== null) {
-          parsedDate = parseDate(tournamentData.date);
-        } else {
-          const eventDateStr = await page.evaluate(() => {
-            const body = document.body ? document.body.innerText : '';
-            const m = body.match(/\d{1,2}\s+to\s+\d{1,2}-[A-Za-z]{3}-\d{4}/)
-                   || body.match(/\d{1,2}-[A-Za-z]{3}-\d{4}/);
-            return m ? m[0] : null;
-          });
-
-          if (eventDateStr) {
-            parsedDate = parseDate(eventDateStr);
-            if (!(parsedDate > afterDate)) {
-              logger.warn({
-                pdgaNumber,
-                url: tournamentData.url,
-                eventDateStr,
-                parsedDate: parsedDate ? parsedDate.toISOString() : null,
-                afterDate: afterDate.toISOString()
-              }, 'recent-events: extracted event date is not newer than afterDate, likely captured a non-tournament date — skipping');
-              continue;
-            }
-            logger.debug({ pdgaNumber, url: tournamentData.url, eventDateStr }, 'recent-events: extracted date from event page');
-          } else {
-            logger.warn({ pdgaNumber, url: tournamentData.url }, 'recent-events: could not extract date from event page, skipping tournament');
-            continue;
-          }
-        }
-
+        
         const roundRatings = await page.evaluate((pdgaNum) => {
           const rows = document.querySelectorAll('tr');
-
+          
           for (const row of rows) {
             const cells = row.querySelectorAll('td');
-            const hasPlayerNumber = Array.from(cells).some(cell =>
+            const hasPlayerNumber = Array.from(cells).some(cell => 
               cell.innerText && cell.innerText.includes(pdgaNum.toString())
             );
-
+            
             if (hasPlayerNumber) {
               const roundRatingCells = row.querySelectorAll('td.round-rating');
               const ratings = [];
-
+              
               roundRatingCells.forEach(cell => {
                 const rating = parseInt(cell.innerText.trim());
                 if (!isNaN(rating) && rating > 0) {
                   ratings.push(rating);
                 }
               });
-
+              
               return ratings;
             }
           }
-
+          
           return [];
         }, pdgaNumber);
-
+        
         if (roundRatings.length > 0) {
+          const parsedDate = parseDate(tournamentData.date);
           roundRatings.forEach(rating => {
             newRounds.push({
               rating,
@@ -311,10 +238,10 @@ async function getNewTournamentRounds(browser, pdgaNumber, afterDate) {
               competition: tournamentData.name
             });
           });
-
+          
           logger.info(`Found ${roundRatings.length} round ratings for ${tournamentData.name}`);
         }
-
+        
       } catch (error) {
         logger.error(`Error scraping tournament ${tournamentData.name}: ${error.message}`);
       }

src/services/player-service.js

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 const { db } = require('../db');
 const { getPlayerFromDB, getRoundHistoryFromDB, savePredictedRatingToDB, savePlayerToDB, getMonthlyHistory, getAllMonthlyHistoriesFromDB, getAllRatingHistoriesFromDB } = require('../models/player');
 const { fetchPlayerDataHTTP, parsePlayerData } = require('../scrapers/player-http');
-const { calculatePredictedRating, getPreviousPDGAUpdateDate } = require('./rating-calculator');
+const { calculatePredictedRating } = require('./rating-calculator');
 const logger = require('../logger');
 
 function formatDisplayDate(dateStr) {
@@ -36,43 +36,32 @@ async function getPlayerDataFromDB(pdgaNumber, { includeMonthlyHistory = true }
   try {
     const cachedPlayer = await getPlayerFromDB(pdgaNumber);
     if (cachedPlayer) {
-      logger.debug(`Loading PDGA ${pdgaNumber} from DB (source of truth)`);
+      logger.debug({ pdgaNumber }, 'Loading player from DB (source of truth)');
 
       let predictedRating = cachedPlayer.predicted_rating;
       let stdDev = cachedPlayer.std_dev;
       let excludedRoundsCount = cachedPlayer.excluded_rounds_count;
       let cutoffRating = cachedPlayer.cutoff_rating;
-      let predictedCalculatedAtRaw = cachedPlayer.predicted_calculated_at;
+      let recomputeAttempted = false;
       if (!predictedRating || predictedRating === 0) {
+        recomputeAttempted = true;
+        logger.debug({ pdgaNumber, dbValue: cachedPlayer.predicted_rating }, 'lazy recompute triggered for predicted_rating');
         predictedRating = await getPredictedRatingFromDB(pdgaNumber);
         const updatedPlayer = await getPlayerFromDB(pdgaNumber);
         stdDev = updatedPlayer?.std_dev;
         excludedRoundsCount = updatedPlayer?.excluded_rounds_count;
         cutoffRating = updatedPlayer?.cutoff_rating;
-        predictedCalculatedAtRaw = updatedPlayer?.predicted_calculated_at;
-      }
-
-      // Staleness-check: invalidate cached predicted_rating if the PDGA cycle has
-      // rolled over since it was calculated. Don't recompute — round_history may be
-      // equally stale. UI will show "—" until the next manual refresh.
-      const predictedCalculatedAt = predictedCalculatedAtRaw
-        ? new Date(predictedCalculatedAtRaw)
-        : null;
-      const previousUpdate = getPreviousPDGAUpdateDate();
-      const hasPredicted = predictedRating !== null && predictedRating !== 0;
-      const isStale = hasPredicted && (
-        predictedCalculatedAt === null || predictedCalculatedAt < previousUpdate
-      );
-      if (isStale) {
-        logger.debug(`PDGA ${pdgaNumber}: predicted rating stale (calculated ${predictedCalculatedAt?.toISOString() ?? 'unknown'}, cycle rolled ${previousUpdate.toISOString()})`);
-        predictedRating = null;
-        stdDev = null;
-        excludedRoundsCount = null;
-        cutoffRating = null;
+        if (!predictedRating || predictedRating === 0) {
+          logger.info({ pdgaNumber, recomputedValue: predictedRating }, 'lazy recompute did not yield a positive predicted rating');
+        }
       }
 
       const rating = cachedPlayer.current_rating;
       const rawRatingChange = cachedPlayer.rating_change;
+      // Only warn about ≤0 if it wasn't already explained by a failed recompute (which has its own log)
+      if (!recomputeAttempted && predictedRating != null && predictedRating <= 0) {
+        logger.warn({ pdgaNumber, dbValue: predictedRating }, 'predicted rating present but <= 0 in DB without recompute — rendered as empty');
+      }
       const resolvedPredicted = predictedRating > 0 ? predictedRating : null;
       const resolvedStdDev = stdDev > 0 ? stdDev : null;
 
@@ -161,22 +150,28 @@ async function scrapePDGARating(pdgaNumber, retries = 3) {
 async function getPredictedRatingFromDB(pdgaNumber) {
   try {
     const roundHistory = await getRoundHistoryFromDB(pdgaNumber);
-    if (roundHistory.length > 0) {
-      logger.debug(`Using ${roundHistory.length} cached rounds for PDGA ${pdgaNumber} prediction`);
-
-      const roundRatings = roundHistory.map(round => ({
-        rating: round.rating,
-        date: new Date(round.date),
-        competition: round.competition_name || 'Unknown'
-      }));
-
-      const result = calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings);
-
-      await savePredictedRatingToDB(pdgaNumber, result.rating, result.stdDev, result.excludedRoundsCount, result.cutoffRating);
-
-      return result.rating;
+    if (roundHistory.length === 0) {
+      logger.info({ pdgaNumber, reason: 'no_round_history_in_db' }, 'predicted recompute returning 0 — no round history available');
+      return 0;
     }
-    return 0;
+
+    logger.debug({ pdgaNumber, cachedRounds: roundHistory.length }, 'Using cached rounds for prediction');
+
+    const roundRatings = roundHistory.map(round => ({
+      rating: round.rating,
+      date: new Date(round.date),
+      competition: round.competition_name || 'Unknown'
+    }));
+
+    const result = calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings, { pdgaNumber, callsite: 'getPredictedRatingFromDB' });
+
+    if (result.rating === 0) {
+      logger.warn({ pdgaNumber, roundsInDb: roundHistory.length }, 'predicted recompute returned 0 despite having rounds in DB');
+    }
+
+    await savePredictedRatingToDB(pdgaNumber, result.rating, result.stdDev, result.excludedRoundsCount, result.cutoffRating, 'lazy-recompute');
+
+    return result.rating;
   } catch (err) {
     logger.error(`Error getting predicted rating from DB for ${pdgaNumber}:`, err.message);
     return 0;

src/services/rating-calculator.js

@@ -1,3 +1,5 @@
+const logger = require('../logger');
+
 function parseDate(dateStr) {
   const multiDayMatch = dateStr.match(/^(\d{1,2})(-([A-Za-z]{3}))?(\s+to\s+)(\d{1,2})-([A-Za-z]{3})-(\d{4})$/);
   if (multiDayMatch) {
@@ -37,41 +39,37 @@ function parseDate(dateStr) {
   return new Date(dateStr);
 }
 
-function secondTuesdayOf(year, month) {
-  const firstDay = new Date(year, month, 1);
-  const daysUntilTuesday = (2 - firstDay.getDay() + 7) % 7;
-  const firstTuesday = new Date(year, month, 1 + daysUntilTuesday);
-  const secondTuesday = new Date(firstTuesday);
-  secondTuesday.setDate(firstTuesday.getDate() + 7);
-  return secondTuesday;
-}
-
 function getNextPDGAUpdateDate() {
   const today = new Date();
   const currentMonth = today.getMonth();
   const currentYear = today.getFullYear();
 
-  const secondTuesday = secondTuesdayOf(currentYear, currentMonth);
+  const firstDayOfMonth = new Date(currentYear, currentMonth, 1);
+  const firstTuesday = new Date(firstDayOfMonth);
+
+  const daysUntilTuesday = (2 - firstDayOfMonth.getDay() + 7) % 7;
+  firstTuesday.setDate(1 + daysUntilTuesday);
+
+  const secondTuesday = new Date(firstTuesday);
+  secondTuesday.setDate(firstTuesday.getDate() + 7);
 
   if (today <= secondTuesday) {
     return secondTuesday;
   } else {
     const nextMonth = currentMonth === 11 ? 0 : currentMonth + 1;
     const nextYear = currentMonth === 11 ? currentYear + 1 : currentYear;
-    return secondTuesdayOf(nextYear, nextMonth);
-  }
-}
 
-function getPreviousPDGAUpdateDate() {
-  const today = new Date();
-  const year = today.getFullYear();
-  const month = today.getMonth();
-  const secondTuesday = secondTuesdayOf(year, month);
-  if (today > secondTuesday) return secondTuesday;
-  // Otherwise: last month's second Tuesday
-  const prevMonth = month === 0 ? 11 : month - 1;
-  const prevYear = month === 0 ? year - 1 : year;
-  return secondTuesdayOf(prevYear, prevMonth);
+    const firstDayNextMonth = new Date(nextYear, nextMonth, 1);
+    const firstTuesdayNext = new Date(firstDayNextMonth);
+
+    const daysUntilTuesdayNext = (2 - firstDayNextMonth.getDay() + 7) % 7;
+    firstTuesdayNext.setDate(1 + daysUntilTuesdayNext);
+
+    const secondTuesdayNext = new Date(firstTuesdayNext);
+    secondTuesdayNext.setDate(firstTuesdayNext.getDate() + 7);
+
+    return secondTuesdayNext;
+  }
 }
 
 function calculateStandardDeviation(ratings) {
@@ -83,15 +81,19 @@ function calculateStandardDeviation(ratings) {
   return Math.sqrt(variance);
 }
 
-function calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings) {
+function calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings, context = {}) {
+  const pdgaNumber = context.pdgaNumber ?? null;
+  const callsite = context.callsite ?? 'unknown';
   const debugLog = [];
   debugLog.push('=== PDGA RATING CALCULATION (Following Official Rules) ===');
 
   if (!roundRatings || roundRatings.length === 0) {
     debugLog.push('❌ No rounds provided for prediction');
+    logger.warn({ pdgaNumber, callsite, reason: 'no_rounds' }, 'predicted rating computed as 0');
     return { rating: 0, debugLog, excludedRoundsCount: null, cutoffRating: null };
   }
 
+  logger.info({ pdgaNumber, callsite, inputRounds: roundRatings.length }, 'predicted rating calculation started');
   debugLog.push(`📊 Starting with ${roundRatings.length} total rounds`);
 
   const nextUpdateDate = getNextPDGAUpdateDate();
@@ -104,6 +106,7 @@ function calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings) {
 
   if (allSortedRounds.length === 0) {
     debugLog.push('❌ No valid rounds after filtering for update date');
+    logger.warn({ pdgaNumber, callsite, reason: 'no_rounds_after_date_filter', inputRounds: roundRatings.length, nextUpdateDate: nextUpdateDate.toISOString() }, 'predicted rating computed as 0');
     return { rating: 0, debugLog, excludedRoundsCount: null, cutoffRating: null };
   }
 
@@ -121,8 +124,9 @@ function calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings) {
   debugLog.push('🗓️  12-MONTH FILTERING:');
   debugLog.push(`✅ Rounds in last 12 months: ${eligibleRounds.length}`);
 
+  let twentyFourMonthsBeforeUpdate = null;
   if (eligibleRounds.length < 8) {
-    const twentyFourMonthsBeforeUpdate = new Date(nextUpdateDate);
+    twentyFourMonthsBeforeUpdate = new Date(nextUpdateDate);
     twentyFourMonthsBeforeUpdate.setFullYear(twentyFourMonthsBeforeUpdate.getFullYear() - 2);
 
     eligibleRounds = allSortedRounds.filter(r => r.date >= twentyFourMonthsBeforeUpdate);
@@ -131,6 +135,7 @@ function calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings) {
 
   if (eligibleRounds.length === 0) {
     debugLog.push('❌ No eligible rounds found');
+    logger.warn({ pdgaNumber, callsite, reason: 'no_eligible_rounds', afterDateFilter: allSortedRounds.length, twelveMonthCutoff: twelveMonthsBeforeUpdate.toISOString(), twentyFourMonthCutoff: twentyFourMonthsBeforeUpdate ? twentyFourMonthsBeforeUpdate.toISOString() : null }, 'predicted rating computed as 0');
     return { rating: 0, debugLog, excludedRoundsCount: null, cutoffRating: null };
   }
 
@@ -239,7 +244,20 @@ function calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings) {
   debugLog.push(`   Final Rating: ${finalRating}`);
   debugLog.push('=== END PDGA CALCULATION ===');
 
+  logger.info({
+    pdgaNumber,
+    callsite,
+    finalRating,
+    inputRounds: roundRatings.length,
+    afterDateFilter: allSortedRounds.length,
+    eligibleRounds: eligibleRounds.length,
+    outlierExclusionApplied: workingRatings.length >= 7,
+    doubleWeightingApplied: workingRatings.length >= 9,
+    excludedRoundsCount,
+    cutoffRating
+  }, 'predicted rating calculated');
+
   return { rating: finalRating, stdDev: Math.round(stdDev), debugLog, excludedRoundsCount, cutoffRating };
 }
 
-module.exports = { parseDate, getNextPDGAUpdateDate, getPreviousPDGAUpdateDate, calculatePredictedRating, calculateStandardDeviation };
+module.exports = { parseDate, getNextPDGAUpdateDate, calculatePredictedRating, calculateStandardDeviation };

src/services/target-rating-calculator.js

@@ -1,14 +1,14 @@
 const { calculatePredictedRating, getNextPDGAUpdateDate } = require('./rating-calculator');
 const logger = require('../logger');
 
-function calculateRequiredAverage(roundRatings, targetRating, numRounds) {
+function calculateRequiredAverage(roundRatings, targetRating, numRounds, pdgaNumber) {
   if (!Array.isArray(roundRatings) || roundRatings.length === 0) {
     const err = new Error('No round history');
     err.code = 'NO_ROUNDS';
     throw err;
   }
 
-  const currentPredicted = calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings).rating;
+  const currentPredicted = calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings, { pdgaNumber, callsite: 'target-rating-calculator' }).rating;
   const nextUpdate = getNextPDGAUpdateDate();
   const syntheticDate = new Date(nextUpdate.getTime() - 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000);
 

views/partials/ratings-cards.ejs

@@ -65,11 +65,6 @@ function renderSparkline(values, opts) {
                 <span class="m-player-name"><%= player.name %></span>
                 <span class="m-pdga-num">#<%= player.pdgaNumber %></span>
             </div>
-            <button class="icon-btn refresh-icon m-refresh-icon" type="button"
-                    onclick="event.stopPropagation(); refreshPlayerData(<%= player.pdgaNumber %>)"
-                    title="Refresh rating + prediction" aria-label="Refresh rating and prediction">
-                <i class="fas fa-sync-alt"></i>
-            </button>
             <span class="m-chevron">&#9660;</span>
         </div>