1.2.8

Reviewed-on: #17

.gitea/workflows/deploy.yml

@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+name: Build and deploy
+
+on:
+  push:
+    tags:
+      - "v*"
+
+jobs:
+  build-and-push:
+    runs-on: ubuntu-latest
+    permissions:
+      contents: read
+      packages: write
+    steps:
+      - uses: actions/checkout@v4
+
+      - name: Login to Gitea registry
+        uses: docker/login-action@v3
+        with:
+          registry: gitea.shcizo.se
+          username: ${{ gitea.actor }}
+          password: ${{ secrets.PACKAGES_TOKEN }}
+
+      - name: Build and push
+        uses: docker/build-push-action@v5
+        with:
+          context: .
+          push: true
+          tags: |
+            gitea.shcizo.se/shcizo/pdga-rating:${{ gitea.ref_name }}
+            gitea.shcizo.se/shcizo/pdga-rating:latest
+
+  deploy:
+    runs-on: ubuntu-latest
+    needs: [build-and-push]
+    steps:
+      - uses: https://gitea.shcizo.se/shcizo/package-updater-action@v1
+        with:
+          endpoint: https://updater.shcizo.se/update
+          image: gitea.shcizo.se/shcizo/pdga-rating
+          tag: ${{ gitea.ref_name }}
+          token: ${{ secrets.UPDATER_API_KEY }}

.gitea/workflows/docker-build.yml

@@ -1,37 +0,0 @@
-name: Docker Build
-
-on:
-  push:
-    tags:
-      - 'v*'
-
-jobs:
-  docker:
-    runs-on: ubuntu-latest
-    permissions:
-      contents: read
-      packages: write
-    steps:
-      - uses: actions/checkout@v4
-
-      - uses: docker/login-action@v3
-        with:
-          registry: gitea.shcizo.se
-          username: ${{ gitea.actor }}
-          password: ${{ secrets.PACKAGES_TOKEN }}
-
-      - uses: docker/metadata-action@v5
-        id: meta
-        with:
-          images: gitea.shcizo.se/shcizo/pdga-rating
-          tags: |
-            type=semver,pattern={{version}}
-            type=semver,pattern={{major}}.{{minor}}
-            type=raw,value=latest
-
-      - uses: docker/build-push-action@v6
-        with:
-          context: .
-          push: true
-          tags: ${{ steps.meta.outputs.tags }}
-          labels: ${{ steps.meta.outputs.labels }}

CLAUDE.md

@@ -4,13 +4,14 @@ PDGA rating scraper and display app. Scrapes player ratings and course data from
 
 ## Tech Stack
 
-- **Runtime:** Node.js 18 (Alpine in Docker)
+- **Runtime:** Node.js 22 (slim/Debian-based in Docker)
+- **Hosting:** Gitea (`gitea.shcizo.se/shcizo/pdga-rating`) — use `tea` CLI for issues/PRs, not `gh`
 - **Server:** Express with EJS templates
 - **Database:** SQLite3 (file: `ratings.db`, Docker: `/app/data/ratings.db`)
 - **Frontend:** HTMX + vanilla JS (in `public/js/`)
 - **Scraping:** Puppeteer (with stealth plugin) + direct HTTP
 - **Logging:** Pino (JSON in production, pino-pretty in dev)
-- **CI/CD:** Release Please + Docker build/push to GHCR
+- **CI/CD:** Gitea Actions (tag-triggered build + push + deploy via `.gitea/workflows/deploy.yml`)
 
 ## Project Structure
 
@@ -38,15 +39,25 @@ public/
 - `LOG_LEVEL=debug npm start` — Enable debug logging
 - `docker compose up` — Run via Docker
 
+**No test framework or lint setup** — `package.json` has only `start` and `dev` scripts. If adding either, document it here.
+
 ## Conventions
 
 - **Logging:** Use `require('./logger')` (or relative path). Never use `console.log/error` in backend code. Use appropriate Pino levels: `debug` for verbose/diagnostic data, `info` for operational status, `warn` for retries/degraded state, `error` for failures, `fatal` for startup crashes.
 - **Frontend JS:** `console.error` is fine in `public/js/` — runs in browser, no Pino.
-- **Commits:** Conventional commits (`feat:`, `fix:`, `refactor:`, `chore:`) — drives release-please.
+- **Commits:** Conventional commits (`feat:`, `fix:`, `refactor:`, `chore:`, `ci:`).
+- **Releases:** Manual version bump — edit `version` in `package.json` + `package-lock.json`, commit as `<version>`, tag `v<version>`, push commit + tag (`git push origin main v<version>`). Triggers `.gitea/workflows/deploy.yml` which (1) builds and pushes the image to `gitea.shcizo.se/shcizo/pdga-rating:<tag>` + `:latest`, then (2) calls `package-updater-action` against `updater.shcizo.se/update` to roll out the new image. Required secrets: `PACKAGES_TOKEN` (PAT with `write:package`, for registry auth — the auto-injected `GITEA_TOKEN` does not have effective registry access) and `UPDATER_API_KEY` (for the updater endpoint). The action repo `shcizo/package-updater-action` is referenced via full Gitea URL (`https://gitea.shcizo.se/...`) since `uses:` defaults to GitHub.
 - **Scraping:** Two strategies per entity: direct HTTP (fast, preferred) with Puppeteer fallback (stealth plugin for anti-bot). Rate limiting must be respected.
 - **Database:** Migrations run automatically on startup in `db.js`. Schema changes go there.
 - **Templates:** EJS with shared layout in `views/partials/`. Pages use HTMX for dynamic content loading.
 
+## PDGA Domain Notes
+
+- **Rating publication cycle:** PDGA officially recalculates ratings on the **second Tuesday of each month**. `getNextPDGAUpdateDate()` in `src/services/rating-calculator.js` computes this — round filtering uses it as cutoff.
+- **Predicted rating algorithm:** `calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings)` replicates PDGA's formula — 12-mo window (expands to 24 if <8 rounds), outlier removal at ≥7 rounds (2.5σ + 100pt threshold), double-weighting of recent 25% at ≥9 rounds. Returns `{rating, stdDev, debugLog}`.
+- **Rate limits:** `POST /api/refresh-round-history/:pdgaNumber` enforces a 24h cooldown per player (`src/routes/players.js`). Don't bypass — PDGA's site rate-limits aggressively.
+- **Round history refresh** uses Puppeteer (stealth plugin), other scraping prefers direct HTTP. Predicted rating is recomputed and stored on each refresh.
+
 ## Environment Variables
 
 | Variable | Default | Description |

package-lock.json

@@ -1,12 +1,12 @@
 {
   "name": "pdga-ratings",
-  "version": "1.2.3",
+  "version": "1.2.8",
   "lockfileVersion": 3,
   "requires": true,
   "packages": {
     "": {
       "name": "pdga-ratings",
-      "version": "1.2.3",
+      "version": "1.2.8",
       "dependencies": {
         "ejs": "^4.0.1",
         "express": "^4.18.2",

package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "pdga-ratings",
-  "version": "1.2.3",
+  "version": "1.2.8",
   "description": "PDGA rating scraper and display",
   "main": "server.js",
   "scripts": {

public/css/players.css

@@ -298,3 +298,86 @@
         font-size: 13px;
     }
 }
+
+/* ── Target Rating Calculator ─────────────────── */
+
+.target-rating-icon {
+    color: var(--accent);
+}
+
+#target-rating-form .form-row {
+    display: flex;
+    flex-direction: column;
+    gap: 4px;
+    margin-bottom: 12px;
+}
+
+#target-rating-form .form-row label {
+    font-size: 0.9em;
+}
+
+#target-rating-form .form-row input {
+    padding: 6px 8px;
+}
+
+#target-rating-form .form-actions {
+    display: flex;
+    justify-content: flex-end;
+    margin-top: 8px;
+}
+
+.target-rating-result {
+    margin-top: 16px;
+    padding-top: 12px;
+    border-top: 1px solid var(--border);
+}
+
+.target-rating-result .target-summary div {
+    margin-bottom: 6px;
+}
+
+.target-rating-result .warning {
+    color: var(--down);
+    margin-top: 8px;
+}
+
+.target-rating-result .error {
+    color: var(--red);
+}
+
+.target-rating-result .muted {
+    color: var(--text-muted);
+    font-size: 0.9em;
+}
+
+.target-rating-result .loading {
+    color: var(--text-muted);
+}
+
+.target-rating-result .no-history-prompt {
+    display: flex;
+    flex-direction: column;
+    gap: 12px;
+    align-items: flex-start;
+}
+
+.target-rating-result .sensitivity {
+    margin-top: 12px;
+    padding-top: 12px;
+    border-top: 1px dashed var(--border);
+}
+
+.target-rating-result .sensitivity-heading {
+    font-size: 0.9em;
+    color: var(--text-muted);
+    margin-bottom: 4px;
+}
+
+.target-rating-result .sensitivity-row {
+    font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;
+    padding-left: 12px;
+}
+
+.target-rating-result .sensitivity-row.is-target {
+    font-weight: 600;
+}

public/js/players.js

@@ -26,23 +26,30 @@ function applyDeltaPill(pillEl, value) {
     pillEl.appendChild(numSpan);
 }
 
-function setupTooltipsAfterSwap() {
-    document.body.addEventListener('htmx:afterSwap', function(event) {
-        if (event.detail.target.id === 'ratings-table') {
-            initRatingsTooltips();
+function initChartsIn(rootEl) {
+    rootEl.querySelectorAll('.player-chart').forEach(function(container) {
+        if (container.dataset.charted === 'true') return;
+        if (!container.dataset.history) return;
+        try {
+            const history = JSON.parse(container.dataset.history);
+            createRatingChart(container, history);
+            container.dataset.charted = 'true';
+        } catch (e) {
+            console.error('Error rendering chart:', e);
         }
-        // After player history partial loads, render the chart
+    });
+}
+
+function setupAfterTableSwap() {
+    document.body.addEventListener('htmx:afterSwap', function(event) {
         const target = event.detail.target;
+        if (target.id === 'ratings-table') {
+            initRatingsTooltips();
+            initChartsIn(target);
+            return;
+        }
         if (target.id && target.id.startsWith('history-content-')) {
-            const container = target.querySelector('.player-chart, .chart-container');
-            if (container && container.dataset.history) {
-                try {
-                    const history = JSON.parse(container.dataset.history);
-                    createRatingChart(container, history);
-                } catch (e) {
-                    console.error('Error rendering chart:', e);
-                }
-            }
+            initChartsIn(target);
         }
     });
 }
@@ -533,3 +540,214 @@ document.addEventListener('keydown', function(e) {
     const pdgaNumber = row.id.replace('row-', '');
     togglePlayerHistory(parseInt(pdgaNumber, 10));
 });
+
+// ── Target Rating Calculator ───────────────────────
+function openTargetRatingModal(pdgaNumber) {
+    const modal = document.getElementById('target-rating-modal');
+    const header = document.getElementById('target-rating-modal-header');
+    const pdgaField = document.getElementById('target-rating-pdga');
+    const result = document.getElementById('target-rating-result');
+    const targetInput = document.getElementById('target-rating-input');
+    const roundsInput = document.getElementById('target-rounds-input');
+    const submitBtn = document.getElementById('target-rating-submit');
+
+    const playerNameEl = document.querySelector('#row-' + pdgaNumber + ' .player-name a');
+    const playerName = playerNameEl ? playerNameEl.textContent : 'PDGA #' + pdgaNumber;
+
+    header.textContent = 'Calculate Target Rating — ' + playerName;
+    pdgaField.value = pdgaNumber;
+    result.style.display = 'none';
+    while (result.firstChild) result.removeChild(result.firstChild);
+    targetInput.value = '';
+    roundsInput.value = '4';
+    submitBtn.disabled = false;
+    submitBtn.textContent = 'Calculate';
+    modal.style.display = 'flex';
+    targetInput.focus();
+}
+
+function _targetResultMsg(parent, cls, text) {
+    const d = document.createElement('div');
+    d.className = cls;
+    d.textContent = text;
+    parent.appendChild(d);
+}
+
+async function calculateTargetRating(event) {
+    if (event) event.preventDefault();
+    const pdgaNumber = document.getElementById('target-rating-pdga').value;
+    const targetRating = parseInt(document.getElementById('target-rating-input').value, 10);
+    const rounds = parseInt(document.getElementById('target-rounds-input').value, 10);
+    const result = document.getElementById('target-rating-result');
+    const submitBtn = document.getElementById('target-rating-submit');
+
+    function clearResult() {
+        while (result.firstChild) result.removeChild(result.firstChild);
+    }
+
+    if (!Number.isInteger(targetRating) || targetRating < 400 || targetRating > 1200) {
+        result.style.display = 'block';
+        clearResult();
+        _targetResultMsg(result, 'error', 'Target rating must be 400-1200.');
+        return;
+    }
+    if (!Number.isInteger(rounds) || rounds < 1 || rounds > 20) {
+        result.style.display = 'block';
+        clearResult();
+        _targetResultMsg(result, 'error', 'Rounds must be an integer 1-20.');
+        return;
+    }
+
+    submitBtn.disabled = true;
+    submitBtn.textContent = 'Calculating...';
+    result.style.display = 'block';
+    clearResult();
+    _targetResultMsg(result, 'loading', 'Calculating...');
+
+    try {
+        const response = await fetch('/api/calculate-target-rating/' + pdgaNumber, {
+            method: 'POST',
+            headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' },
+            body: JSON.stringify({ targetRating: targetRating, rounds: rounds })
+        });
+        const data = await response.json();
+
+        clearResult();
+
+        if (!response.ok || !data.success) {
+            if (response.status === 404 && data.errorType === 'NO_ROUNDS') {
+                renderNoHistoryPrompt(pdgaNumber, result);
+                return;
+            }
+            const msg = data.details ? data.error + ': ' + data.details : (data.error || 'Calculation failed');
+            _targetResultMsg(result, 'error', msg);
+            return;
+        }
+
+        const summary = document.createElement('div');
+        summary.className = 'target-summary';
+
+        const avgLine = document.createElement('div');
+        const avgStrong = document.createElement('strong');
+        avgStrong.textContent = 'Required round average: ';
+        avgLine.appendChild(avgStrong);
+        avgLine.appendChild(document.createTextNode(String(data.requiredAverage)));
+        summary.appendChild(avgLine);
+
+        const currentLine = document.createElement('div');
+        currentLine.textContent = 'Current predicted rating: ' + data.currentRating;
+        summary.appendChild(currentLine);
+
+        const simLine = document.createElement('div');
+        simLine.textContent = 'Simulated predicted rating at this average: ' + data.predictedRating;
+        summary.appendChild(simLine);
+
+        const mutedLine = document.createElement('div');
+        mutedLine.className = 'muted';
+        mutedLine.textContent = 'Across ' + data.rounds + ' synthetic rounds before the next PDGA update.';
+        summary.appendChild(mutedLine);
+
+        if (data.sensitivity) {
+            renderSensitivity(data.sensitivity, summary);
+        }
+
+        if (data.warning) {
+            _targetResultMsg(summary, 'warning', data.warning);
+        }
+
+        result.appendChild(summary);
+    } catch (err) {
+        console.error('Error calculating target rating:', err);
+        clearResult();
+        _targetResultMsg(result, 'error', 'Network error. Please try again.');
+    } finally {
+        submitBtn.disabled = false;
+        submitBtn.textContent = 'Calculate';
+    }
+}
+
+function closeTargetRatingModal(event) {
+    document.getElementById('target-rating-modal').style.display = 'none';
+}
+
+function renderSensitivity(sensitivity, container) {
+    const wrapper = document.createElement('div');
+    wrapper.className = 'sensitivity';
+
+    const heading = document.createElement('div');
+    heading.className = 'sensitivity-heading';
+    heading.textContent = 'Sensitivity:';
+    wrapper.appendChild(heading);
+
+    const rows = [
+        { row: sensitivity.lower, isTarget: false },
+        { row: sensitivity.target, isTarget: true },
+        { row: sensitivity.upper, isTarget: false }
+    ];
+    for (const { row, isTarget } of rows) {
+        const line = document.createElement('div');
+        line.className = 'sensitivity-row' + (isTarget ? ' is-target' : '');
+        line.textContent = 'Average ' + row.average + ' → predicted ' + row.predicted + (isTarget ? ' (target)' : '');
+        wrapper.appendChild(line);
+    }
+
+    container.appendChild(wrapper);
+}
+
+function renderNoHistoryPrompt(pdgaNumber, container) {
+    const wrapper = document.createElement('div');
+    wrapper.className = 'no-history-prompt';
+
+    const msg = document.createElement('div');
+    msg.textContent = 'No round-level history is stored for this player yet. Refresh from PDGA to enable the calculation.';
+    wrapper.appendChild(msg);
+
+    const btn = document.createElement('button');
+    btn.type = 'button';
+    btn.className = 'btn btn-confirm';
+    btn.textContent = 'Refresh round history & calculate';
+    btn.addEventListener('click', function () { refreshHistoryThenCalculate(pdgaNumber); });
+    wrapper.appendChild(btn);
+
+    container.appendChild(wrapper);
+}
+
+async function refreshHistoryThenCalculate(pdgaNumber) {
+    const result = document.getElementById('target-rating-result');
+    while (result.firstChild) result.removeChild(result.firstChild);
+    _targetResultMsg(result, 'loading', 'Refreshing round history from PDGA — this may take up to 30 seconds...');
+
+    try {
+        const response = await fetch('/api/refresh-round-history/' + pdgaNumber, { method: 'POST' });
+        const data = await response.json();
+        while (result.firstChild) result.removeChild(result.firstChild);
+
+        if (response.status === 429) {
+            const hours = data.hoursRemaining ? data.hoursRemaining + ' hour(s)' : 'a while';
+            _targetResultMsg(result, 'error', 'Round history was refreshed recently. Try again in ' + hours + '.');
+            return;
+        }
+
+        if (!response.ok || !data.success) {
+            const msg = data.details ? data.error + ': ' + data.details : (data.error || 'Refresh failed');
+            _targetResultMsg(result, 'error', msg);
+            return;
+        }
+
+        if (data.debugLog) cachedDebugInfo[pdgaNumber] = data.debugLog;
+        const predictedCell = document.getElementById('predicted-' + pdgaNumber);
+        if (predictedCell) {
+            const predictedValue = predictedCell.querySelector('.predicted-value');
+            if (predictedValue) {
+                predictedValue.textContent = data.predictedRating || 'N/A';
+                predictedValue.dataset.stddev = data.stdDev || '';
+            }
+        }
+
+        await calculateTargetRating(null);
+    } catch (err) {
+        console.error('Error refreshing round history:', err);
+        while (result.firstChild) result.removeChild(result.firstChild);
+        _targetResultMsg(result, 'error', 'Network error during refresh. Please try again.');
+    }
+}

src/models/player.js

@@ -253,6 +253,32 @@ function getAllMonthlyHistoriesFromDB(months = 12) {
   });
 }
 
+/**
+ * Fetches the full rating history for ALL players in one query.
+ * Returns Map<pdgaNumber, {rating, date}[]> ordered chronologically (oldest → newest).
+ * Mirrors getAllMonthlyHistoriesFromDB but returns every point, not monthly snapshots.
+ */
+function getAllRatingHistoriesFromDB() {
+  return new Promise((resolve, reject) => {
+    db.all(
+      `SELECT p.pdga_number, rh.date, rh.rating
+       FROM rating_history rh
+       JOIN players p ON rh.player_id = p.id
+       ORDER BY p.pdga_number, rh.date ASC`,
+      [],
+      (err, rows) => {
+        if (err) return reject(err);
+        const map = new Map();
+        for (const row of rows) {
+          if (!map.has(row.pdga_number)) map.set(row.pdga_number, []);
+          map.get(row.pdga_number).push({ date: row.date, rating: row.rating });
+        }
+        resolve(map);
+      }
+    );
+  });
+}
+
 function getLastRefresh() {
   return new Promise((resolve, reject) => {
     db.get(
@@ -278,5 +304,6 @@ module.exports = {
   savePredictedRatingToDB,
   getLastRefresh,
   getMonthlyHistory,
-  getAllMonthlyHistoriesFromDB
+  getAllMonthlyHistoriesFromDB,
+  getAllRatingHistoriesFromDB
 };

src/routes/players.js

@@ -5,9 +5,10 @@ const { getPlayerFromDB, savePlayerToDB, getRatingHistoryFromDB, saveRatingHisto
 const { fetchPlayerDataHTTP, parsePlayerData, fetchRatingHistory, parseRatingHistory } = require('../scrapers/player-http');
 const { getOfficialRatingHistory, getOptimizedPlayerRounds } = require('../scrapers/player-puppeteer');
 const { launchBrowser } = require('../scrapers/browser');
-const { getPlayerDataFromDB, scrapePDGARating, getAllRatingsFromDB, refreshAllPlayersInDB, getPredictedRatingFromDB } = require('../services/player-service');
+const { getPlayerDataFromDB, scrapePDGARating, getAllRatingsFromDB, refreshAllPlayersInDB, getPredictedRatingFromDB, formatDisplayDate } = require('../services/player-service');
 const { getTopbarLocals } = require('../services/topbar-service');
 const { calculatePredictedRating } = require('../services/rating-calculator');
+const { calculateRequiredAverage } = require('../services/target-rating-calculator');
 const logger = require('../logger');
 
 let refreshInProgress = false;
@@ -43,6 +44,8 @@ router.get('/partials/ratings-table', async (req, res) => {
   }
 });
 
+// Used only by the per-player "refresh rating history" button. The initial table render
+// pre-attaches history via getAllRatingsFromDB to avoid the load-then-fetch race.
 router.get('/partials/player-history/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
   try {
     const { pdgaNumber } = req.params;
@@ -61,7 +64,7 @@ router.get('/partials/player-history/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
     const formattedHistory = (history || []).map(row => ({
       date: row.date,
       rating: row.rating,
-      displayDate: new Date(row.date).toLocaleDateString('en-US', { day: '2-digit', month: 'short', year: 'numeric' })
+      displayDate: formatDisplayDate(row.date)
     }));
 
     const player = await getPlayerDataFromDB(pdgaNumber);
@@ -117,11 +120,7 @@ router.get('/api/rating-history/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
       const formattedHistory = cachedHistory.map(row => ({
         date: row.date,
         rating: row.rating,
-        displayDate: new Date(row.date).toLocaleDateString('en-US', { 
-          day: '2-digit', 
-          month: 'short', 
-          year: 'numeric' 
-        })
+        displayDate: formatDisplayDate(row.date)
       }));
       
       res.json({ 
@@ -444,4 +443,71 @@ router.post('/api/refresh-round-history/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
   }
 });
 
+router.post('/api/calculate-target-rating/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
+  const { pdgaNumber } = req.params;
+  const pdgaNum = parseInt(pdgaNumber, 10);
+  const { targetRating, rounds } = req.body || {};
+
+  if (!Number.isFinite(pdgaNum) || pdgaNum <= 0) {
+    return res.status(400).json({ error: 'Invalid PDGA number' });
+  }
+  const target = Number(targetRating);
+  const numRounds = Number(rounds);
+  if (!Number.isFinite(target) || target < 400 || target > 1200) {
+    return res.status(400).json({
+      error: 'Invalid target rating',
+      details: 'targetRating must be a number between 400 and 1200'
+    });
+  }
+  if (!Number.isInteger(numRounds) || numRounds < 1 || numRounds > 20) {
+    return res.status(400).json({
+      error: 'Invalid round count',
+      details: 'rounds must be an integer between 1 and 20'
+    });
+  }
+
+  try {
+    const dbRounds = await getRoundHistoryFromDB(pdgaNum);
+    if (!dbRounds || dbRounds.length === 0) {
+      return res.status(404).json({
+        error: 'No round history available',
+        details: 'Refresh the player round history before calculating a target.',
+        errorType: 'NO_ROUNDS'
+      });
+    }
+
+    const roundRatings = dbRounds.map(r => ({
+      rating: r.rating,
+      date: new Date(r.date),
+      competition: r.competition_name
+    }));
+
+    const result = calculateRequiredAverage(roundRatings, target, numRounds);
+
+    logger.info(`Target rating calc for PDGA ${pdgaNum}: target=${target} rounds=${numRounds} -> avg=${result.requiredAverage}`);
+
+    return res.json({
+      success: true,
+      pdgaNumber: pdgaNum,
+      targetRating: target,
+      rounds: numRounds,
+      currentRating: result.currentPredicted,
+      requiredAverage: result.requiredAverage,
+      predictedRating: result.simulatedPredicted,
+      warning: result.warning,
+      iterations: result.iterations,
+      sensitivity: result.sensitivity
+    });
+  } catch (err) {
+    logger.error(`Target rating calc failed for PDGA ${pdgaNum}: ${err.message}`);
+    return res.status(500).json({
+      error: 'Failed to calculate target rating',
+      details: err.message,
+      errorType: err.code || 'CALC_ERROR',
+      timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
+      suggestion: 'Try refreshing the round history and retrying.'
+    });
+  }
+});
+
 module.exports = router;

src/services/player-service.js

@@ -1,9 +1,15 @@
 const { db } = require('../db');
-const { getPlayerFromDB, getRoundHistoryFromDB, savePredictedRatingToDB, savePlayerToDB, getMonthlyHistory, getAllMonthlyHistoriesFromDB } = require('../models/player');
+const { getPlayerFromDB, getRoundHistoryFromDB, savePredictedRatingToDB, savePlayerToDB, getMonthlyHistory, getAllMonthlyHistoriesFromDB, getAllRatingHistoriesFromDB } = require('../models/player');
 const { fetchPlayerDataHTTP, parsePlayerData } = require('../scrapers/player-http');
 const { calculatePredictedRating } = require('./rating-calculator');
 const logger = require('../logger');
 
+function formatDisplayDate(dateStr) {
+  return new Date(dateStr).toLocaleDateString('en-US', {
+    day: '2-digit', month: 'short', year: 'numeric'
+  });
+}
+
 // Derives previous-month rating and the delta to it. Prefers PDGA's reported
 // rating_change (canonical), falls back to our own monthly snapshots when
 // rating_change is missing — common for players whose latest scrape failed.
@@ -167,6 +173,7 @@ async function getAllRatingsFromDB(progressCallback = null) {
 
     // Fetch all monthly histories in one query so the per-player loop doesn't add N extra queries
     const monthlyHistoryMap = await getAllMonthlyHistoriesFromDB(12);
+    const ratingHistoryMap = await getAllRatingHistoriesFromDB();
 
     const ratings = [];
     const total = allPlayers.length;
@@ -189,6 +196,12 @@ async function getAllRatingsFromDB(progressCallback = null) {
 
         if (playerData) {
           playerData.monthlyHistory = monthlyHistoryMap.get(pdgaNumber) ?? [];
+          const rawHistory = ratingHistoryMap.get(pdgaNumber) ?? [];
+          playerData.ratingHistory = rawHistory.map(row => ({
+            date: row.date,
+            rating: row.rating,
+            displayDate: formatDisplayDate(row.date)
+          }));
           // Re-derive now that history is attached — bulk path skipped includeMonthlyHistory
           const derived = deriveMonthlyDeltas(playerData.rating, player.rating_change, playerData.monthlyHistory);
           playerData.lastMonthRating = derived.lastMonthRating;
@@ -218,7 +231,8 @@ async function getAllRatingsFromDB(progressCallback = null) {
           stdDev: null,
           lastMonthRating: (errorRating != null && errorRatingChange != null) ? errorRating - errorRatingChange : null,
           deltaPredicted: null,
-          monthlyHistory: []
+          monthlyHistory: [],
+          ratingHistory: []
         };
         ratings.push(errorData);
 
@@ -344,5 +358,6 @@ module.exports = {
   getPredictedRatingFromDB,
   getAllRatingsFromDB,
   refreshAllPlayersInDB,
-  computeKpis
+  computeKpis,
+  formatDisplayDate
 };

src/services/target-rating-calculator.js

@@ -0,0 +1,81 @@
+const { calculatePredictedRating, getNextPDGAUpdateDate } = require('./rating-calculator');
+const logger = require('../logger');
+
+function calculateRequiredAverage(roundRatings, targetRating, numRounds) {
+  if (!Array.isArray(roundRatings) || roundRatings.length === 0) {
+    const err = new Error('No round history');
+    err.code = 'NO_ROUNDS';
+    throw err;
+  }
+
+  const currentPredicted = calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings).rating;
+  const nextUpdate = getNextPDGAUpdateDate();
+  const syntheticDate = new Date(nextUpdate.getTime() - 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000);
+
+  const simulate = (R) => {
+    const synthetic = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < numRounds; i++) {
+      synthetic.push({ rating: R, date: syntheticDate, competition: 'TARGET_SIM' });
+    }
+    return calculatePredictedRating([...roundRatings, ...synthetic]).rating;
+  };
+
+  let lo = 400;
+  let hi = 1200;
+  let iterations = 0;
+  const maxIterations = 30;
+  let exactMatchAvg = null;
+
+  while (iterations < maxIterations && (hi - lo) >= 0.5) {
+    const mid = (lo + hi) / 2;
+    const predicted = simulate(mid);
+    if (predicted === targetRating) {
+      exactMatchAvg = mid;
+      // Narrow toward smaller R that still hits target — but break to bound iterations.
+      hi = mid;
+    } else if (predicted < targetRating) {
+      lo = mid;
+    } else {
+      hi = mid;
+    }
+    iterations++;
+  }
+
+  const candidate = exactMatchAvg !== null ? exactMatchAvg : (lo + hi) / 2;
+  const requiredAverage = Math.round(candidate * 10) / 10;
+  const simulatedPredicted = simulate(requiredAverage);
+
+  let warning = null;
+  if (requiredAverage >= 1199.5) {
+    warning = 'Target may be unreachable with this number of rounds within the simulated range [400, 1200].';
+  } else if (requiredAverage <= 400.5) {
+    warning = 'Required average is at the lower bound — target may already be exceeded or rounds would drag rating down.';
+  } else if (requiredAverage > 1050) {
+    warning = 'Required average is extremely high (>1050) — practically very difficult.';
+  } else if (requiredAverage < 600) {
+    warning = 'Required average is very low (<600) — check that your target is reasonable.';
+  } else if (iterations >= maxIterations && Math.abs(simulatedPredicted - targetRating) > 1) {
+    warning = 'Could not converge precisely; result is approximate.';
+  }
+
+  const lowerAvg = Math.max(400, Math.round((requiredAverage - 1) * 10) / 10);
+  const upperAvg = Math.min(1200, Math.round((requiredAverage + 1) * 10) / 10);
+  const sensitivity = {
+    lower: { average: lowerAvg, predicted: simulate(lowerAvg) },
+    target: { average: requiredAverage, predicted: simulatedPredicted },
+    upper: { average: upperAvg, predicted: simulate(upperAvg) }
+  };
+
+  logger.debug(`Target rating calc: target=${targetRating} rounds=${numRounds} → avg=${requiredAverage} (iterations=${iterations}, simulated=${simulatedPredicted})`);
+
+  return {
+    requiredAverage,
+    currentPredicted,
+    simulatedPredicted,
+    iterations,
+    warning,
+    sensitivity
+  };
+}
+
+module.exports = { calculateRequiredAverage };

src/services/topbar-service.js

@@ -1,6 +1,10 @@
 const { getLastRefresh } = require('../models/player');
+const { getNextPDGAUpdateDate } = require('./rating-calculator');
 const logger = require('../logger');
 
+const DAY_NAMES = ['Sun', 'Mon', 'Tue', 'Wed', 'Thu', 'Fri', 'Sat'];
+const MONTH_NAMES = ['Jan', 'Feb', 'Mar', 'Apr', 'May', 'Jun', 'Jul', 'Aug', 'Sep', 'Oct', 'Nov', 'Dec'];
+
 function formatRelative(isoString) {
   if (!isoString) return 'Never';
   const then = new Date(isoString.replace(' ', 'T') + (isoString.endsWith('Z') ? '' : 'Z'));
@@ -18,25 +22,18 @@ function formatRelative(isoString) {
   return then.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
 }
 
-// First Tuesday of next month — approximation of PDGA's monthly cycle
-function computeNextUpdate(now = new Date()) {
-  const year = now.getUTCFullYear();
-  const month = now.getUTCMonth() + 1; // next month, may roll over
-  const candidate = new Date(Date.UTC(month === 12 ? year + 1 : year, month === 12 ? 0 : month, 1));
-  // 0=Sun, 1=Mon, 2=Tue
-  const offset = (2 - candidate.getUTCDay() + 7) % 7;
-  candidate.setUTCDate(1 + offset);
-  const months = ['Jan', 'Feb', 'Mar', 'Apr', 'May', 'Jun', 'Jul', 'Aug', 'Sep', 'Oct', 'Nov', 'Dec'];
-  return `${['Sun', 'Mon', 'Tue', 'Wed', 'Thu', 'Fri', 'Sat'][candidate.getUTCDay()]} ${candidate.getUTCDate()} ${months[candidate.getUTCMonth()]}`;
+function formatNextUpdate(date) {
+  return `${DAY_NAMES[date.getDay()]} ${date.getDate()} ${MONTH_NAMES[date.getMonth()]}`;
 }
 
 async function getTopbarLocals() {
+  const nextUpdate = formatNextUpdate(getNextPDGAUpdateDate());
   try {
     const lastIso = await getLastRefresh();
-    return { lastRefresh: formatRelative(lastIso), nextUpdate: computeNextUpdate() };
+    return { lastRefresh: formatRelative(lastIso), nextUpdate };
   } catch (err) {
     logger.warn({ err }, 'topbar locals fallback');
-    return { lastRefresh: 'Unknown', nextUpdate: computeNextUpdate() };
+    return { lastRefresh: 'Unknown', nextUpdate };
   }
 }
 

views/pages/index.ejs

@@ -102,6 +102,31 @@
             </div>
         </div>
     </div>
+
+    <!-- Target Rating Modal -->
+    <div id="target-rating-modal" class="modal" onclick="closeTargetRatingModal(event)">
+        <div class="modal-content" onclick="event.stopPropagation()">
+            <button class="modal-close" onclick="closeTargetRatingModal()">&times;</button>
+            <div class="modal-header" id="target-rating-modal-header">Calculate Target Rating</div>
+            <div class="modal-body" id="target-rating-modal-body">
+                <form id="target-rating-form" onsubmit="calculateTargetRating(event)">
+                    <input type="hidden" id="target-rating-pdga" value="">
+                    <div class="form-row">
+                        <label for="target-rating-input">Target predicted rating</label>
+                        <input type="number" id="target-rating-input" min="400" max="1200" step="1" required>
+                    </div>
+                    <div class="form-row">
+                        <label for="target-rounds-input">Number of rounds</label>
+                        <input type="number" id="target-rounds-input" min="1" max="20" step="1" value="4" required>
+                    </div>
+                    <div class="form-actions">
+                        <button type="submit" class="btn btn-confirm" id="target-rating-submit">Calculate</button>
+                    </div>
+                </form>
+                <div id="target-rating-result" class="target-rating-result" style="display:none;"></div>
+            </div>
+        </div>
+    </div>
 `; %>
 
 <%- include('../partials/layout', {
@@ -109,7 +134,7 @@
     activePage: 'players',
     cssFiles: ['players.css'],
     jsFiles: ['tooltips.js', 'chart.js', 'players.js'],
-    initScript: 'setupTooltipsAfterSwap();',
+    initScript: 'setupAfterTableSwap();',
     body: body,
     modals: modals
 }) %>

views/partials/ratings-table.ejs

@@ -82,6 +82,9 @@ function renderSparkline(values) {
                     <button class="icon-btn refresh-icon" onclick="refreshPlayerData(<%= player.pdgaNumber %>)" title="Refresh rating + prediction" aria-label="Refresh rating and prediction">
                         <i class="fas fa-sync-alt"></i>
                     </button>
+                    <button class="icon-btn target-rating-icon" onclick="openTargetRatingModal(<%= player.pdgaNumber %>)" title="Calculate target rating" aria-label="Calculate target rating">
+                        <i class="fas fa-bullseye"></i>
+                    </button>
                     <button class="icon-btn icon-chev" onclick="togglePlayerHistory(<%= player.pdgaNumber %>)" title="Expand row" aria-label="Expand">
                         <i class="fas fa-chevron-down"></i>
                     </button>
@@ -89,8 +92,12 @@ function renderSparkline(values) {
             </tr>
             <tr id="history-<%= player.pdgaNumber %>" class="expanded-content">
                 <td colspan="5" class="expanded-cell">
-                    <div id="history-content-<%= player.pdgaNumber %>">
-                        <div class="loading-chart">Click to load rating history...</div>
+                    <div id="history-content-<%= player.pdgaNumber %>" data-loaded="true">
+                        <%- include('player-history', {
+                            pdgaNumber: player.pdgaNumber,
+                            history: player.ratingHistory || [],
+                            player: player
+                        }) %>
                     </div>
                 </td>
             </tr>