chore: address review feedback on predicted rating logging (#11)

- align diagnostic endpoint date windows with getNextPDGAUpdateDate
- pass pdgaNumber to initial target-rating calculation for log attribution
- avoid double log when lazy-recompute returns 0
- log full error object in admin endpoint catch

package-lock.json

@@ -1,12 +1,12 @@
 {
   "name": "pdga-ratings",
-  "version": "1.3.0",
+  "version": "1.4.0",
   "lockfileVersion": 3,
   "requires": true,
   "packages": {
     "": {
       "name": "pdga-ratings",
-      "version": "1.3.0",
+      "version": "1.4.0",
       "dependencies": {
         "ejs": "^4.0.1",
         "express": "^4.18.2",

package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "pdga-ratings",
-  "version": "1.3.0",
+  "version": "1.4.0",
   "description": "PDGA rating scraper and display",
   "main": "server.js",
   "scripts": {

public/css/players.css

@@ -94,82 +94,6 @@
     box-shadow: var(--shadow-lg);
 }
 
-/* ── Debug Icon ───────────────────────────────── */
-
-.debug-icon:hover {
-    opacity: 1 !important;
-    color: var(--accent) !important;
-}
-
-/* ── Debug Modal ──────────────────────────────── */
-
-.debug-modal {
-    position: fixed;
-    top: 0;
-    left: 0;
-    width: 100%;
-    height: 100%;
-    background: rgba(15, 23, 42, 0.5);
-    backdrop-filter: blur(4px);
-    z-index: 10001;
-    display: none;
-    justify-content: center;
-    align-items: center;
-}
-
-.debug-content {
-    background: var(--surface-1);
-    border-radius: var(--radius-lg);
-    padding: 24px;
-    max-width: 640px;
-    width: 90%;
-    max-height: 80vh;
-    overflow-y: auto;
-    box-shadow: var(--shadow-overlay);
-    position: relative;
-}
-
-.debug-header {
-    font-weight: 700;
-    font-size: 16px;
-    margin-bottom: 16px;
-    color: var(--text-primary);
-    padding-bottom: 12px;
-    border-bottom: 1px solid var(--border);
-}
-
-.debug-log {
-    font-family: var(--font-mono);
-    background: var(--surface-2);
-    border: 1px solid var(--border);
-    border-radius: var(--radius-md);
-    padding: 16px;
-    font-size: 12px;
-    line-height: 1.6;
-    white-space: pre-line;
-    color: var(--text-primary);
-}
-
-.debug-close {
-    position: absolute;
-    top: 12px;
-    right: 16px;
-    font-size: 22px;
-    color: var(--text-muted);
-    cursor: pointer;
-    background: none;
-    border: none;
-    padding: 4px;
-    border-radius: var(--radius-sm);
-    transition: color var(--transition), background var(--transition);
-    line-height: 1;
-}
-
-.debug-close:hover {
-    color: var(--text-primary);
-    background: var(--surface-3);
-}
-
 /* ── Add Player Modal ─────────────────────────── */
 
 .modal {

public/js/players.js

@@ -1,4 +1,3 @@
-const cachedDebugInfo = {};
 let pendingPlayerData = null;
 let openPdgaNumber = null;
 
@@ -186,10 +185,6 @@ async function refreshRoundHistory(pdgaNumber) {
         }
 
         if (data.success) {
-            if (data.debugLog) {
-                cachedDebugInfo[pdgaNumber] = data.debugLog;
-            }
-
             const predictedCell = document.getElementById(`predicted-${pdgaNumber}`);
             if (predictedCell) {
                 const predictedValue = predictedCell.querySelector('.predicted-value');
@@ -234,43 +229,6 @@ async function refreshRatingHistory(pdgaNumber) {
     }
 }
 
-async function showDebugInfo(pdgaNumber) {
-    const modal = document.getElementById('debug-modal');
-    const header = document.getElementById('debug-header');
-    const log = document.getElementById('debug-log');
-
-    const playerNameElement = document.querySelector(`#row-${pdgaNumber} .player-name a`);
-    const playerName = playerNameElement ? playerNameElement.textContent : `PDGA #${pdgaNumber}`;
-
-    header.textContent = `Prediction Calculation Details - ${playerName}`;
-    log.textContent = 'Loading calculation details...';
-    modal.style.display = 'flex';
-
-    try {
-        if (cachedDebugInfo[pdgaNumber]) {
-            log.textContent = cachedDebugInfo[pdgaNumber].join('\n');
-            return;
-        }
-
-        const response = await fetch(`/api/refresh-round-history/${pdgaNumber}`, { method: 'POST' });
-        const data = await response.json();
-
-        if (data.success && data.debugLog) {
-            cachedDebugInfo[pdgaNumber] = data.debugLog;
-            log.textContent = data.debugLog.join('\n');
-        } else {
-            log.textContent = 'No debug information available. Try refreshing the prediction first.';
-        }
-    } catch (error) {
-        console.error('Error fetching debug info:', error);
-        log.textContent = 'Error loading debug information. Please try again.';
-    }
-}
-
-function closeDebugModal(event) {
-    document.getElementById('debug-modal').style.display = 'none';
-}
-
 async function searchAndAddPlayer(event) {
     if (event) event.preventDefault();
     const input = document.getElementById('pdga-number-input');
@@ -712,7 +670,6 @@ async function refreshHistoryThenCalculate(pdgaNumber) {
             return;
         }
 
-        if (data.debugLog) cachedDebugInfo[pdgaNumber] = data.debugLog;
         const predictedCell = document.getElementById('predicted-' + pdgaNumber);
         if (predictedCell) {
             const predictedValue = predictedCell.querySelector('.predicted-value');

src/db.js

@@ -34,6 +34,8 @@ function initializeDatabase() {
           const hasLastRoundUpdate = columns.some(col => col.name === 'last_round_update');
           const hasPredictedRating = columns.some(col => col.name === 'predicted_rating');
           const hasStdDev = columns.some(col => col.name === 'std_dev');
+          const hasExcludedRoundsCount = columns.some(col => col.name === 'excluded_rounds_count');
+          const hasCutoffRating = columns.some(col => col.name === 'cutoff_rating');
 
           if (!hasLastRoundUpdate) {
             logger.info('Adding last_round_update column to players table...');
@@ -58,6 +60,22 @@ function initializeDatabase() {
               else logger.info('Successfully added std_dev column');
             });
           }
+
+          if (!hasExcludedRoundsCount) {
+            logger.info('Adding excluded_rounds_count column to players table...');
+            db.run(`ALTER TABLE players ADD COLUMN excluded_rounds_count INTEGER DEFAULT NULL`, (err) => {
+              if (err) logger.error('Error adding excluded_rounds_count column:', err.message);
+              else logger.info('Successfully added excluded_rounds_count column');
+            });
+          }
+
+          if (!hasCutoffRating) {
+            logger.info('Adding cutoff_rating column to players table...');
+            db.run(`ALTER TABLE players ADD COLUMN cutoff_rating INTEGER DEFAULT NULL`, (err) => {
+              if (err) logger.error('Error adding cutoff_rating column:', err.message);
+              else logger.info('Successfully added cutoff_rating column');
+            });
+          }
         });
       });
 

src/models/player.js

@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 const { db } = require('../db');
 const { parseDate } = require('../services/rating-calculator');
+const logger = require('../logger');
 
 function getPlayerFromDB(pdgaNumber) {
   return new Promise((resolve, reject) => {
@@ -16,6 +17,7 @@ function getPlayerFromDB(pdgaNumber) {
 
 function savePlayerToDB(playerData) {
   return new Promise((resolve, reject) => {
+    logger.info({ pdgaNumber: playerData.pdgaNumber, name: playerData.name, currentRating: playerData.rating, ratingChange: playerData.ratingChange, resetColumns: ['predicted_rating', 'std_dev', 'excluded_rounds_count', 'cutoff_rating', 'last_round_update'] }, 'INSERT OR REPLACE on players — derived columns will be reset to NULL');
     db.run(
       `INSERT OR REPLACE INTO players (pdga_number, name, current_rating, rating_change, last_updated)
        VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, datetime('now'))`,
@@ -172,16 +174,28 @@ function saveRoundHistoryToDB(pdgaNumber, roundData, isIncremental = false) {
   });
 }
 
-function savePredictedRatingToDB(pdgaNumber, predictedRating, stdDev = null) {
+function savePredictedRatingToDB(pdgaNumber, predictedRating, stdDev = null, excludedRoundsCount = null, cutoffRating = null, callsite = 'unknown') {
   return new Promise((resolve, reject) => {
-    db.run(
-      'UPDATE players SET predicted_rating = ?, std_dev = ? WHERE pdga_number = ?',
-      [predictedRating, stdDev, pdgaNumber],
-      function(err) {
-        if (err) reject(err);
-        else resolve();
-      }
-    );
+    db.get('SELECT predicted_rating AS oldValue FROM players WHERE pdga_number = ?', [pdgaNumber], (selectErr, row) => {
+      if (selectErr) return reject(selectErr);
+      const oldValue = row ? row.oldValue : null;
+
+      db.run(
+        'UPDATE players SET predicted_rating = ?, std_dev = ?, excluded_rounds_count = ?, cutoff_rating = ? WHERE pdga_number = ?',
+        [predictedRating, stdDev, excludedRoundsCount, cutoffRating, pdgaNumber],
+        function(err) {
+          if (err) return reject(err);
+
+          const logData = { pdgaNumber, oldValue, newValue: predictedRating, callsite };
+          if (predictedRating === 0 && oldValue != null && oldValue > 0) {
+            logger.warn(logData, 'predicted rating overwritten with 0');
+          } else {
+            logger.info(logData, 'predicted rating saved');
+          }
+          resolve();
+        }
+      );
+    });
   });
 }
 

src/routes/players.js

@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ const { getOfficialRatingHistory, getOptimizedPlayerRounds } = require('../scrap
 const { launchBrowser } = require('../scrapers/browser');
 const { getPlayerDataFromDB, scrapePDGARating, getAllRatingsFromDB, refreshAllPlayersInDB, getPredictedRatingFromDB, formatDisplayDate } = require('../services/player-service');
 const { getTopbarLocals } = require('../services/topbar-service');
-const { calculatePredictedRating } = require('../services/rating-calculator');
+const { calculatePredictedRating, getNextPDGAUpdateDate } = require('../services/rating-calculator');
 const { calculateRequiredAverage } = require('../services/target-rating-calculator');
 const logger = require('../logger');
 
@@ -19,6 +19,7 @@ router.post('/api/refresh-all', async (req, res, next) => {
     return res.status(409).json({ error: 'Refresh already in progress' });
   }
   refreshInProgress = true;
+  logger.info({ pdgaNumber: 'all' }, 'refresh-all triggered — will invoke savePlayerToDB for all players (INSERT OR REPLACE wipes derived columns)');
   try {
     try {
       await refreshAllPlayersInDB();
@@ -253,7 +254,7 @@ router.post('/api/add-player', async (req, res) => {
 router.post('/api/refresh-player/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
   try {
     const { pdgaNumber } = req.params;
-    logger.info(`Manually refreshing player data for PDGA ${pdgaNumber}`);
+    logger.info({ pdgaNumber }, 'refresh-player triggered — will invoke savePlayerToDB (INSERT OR REPLACE wipes derived columns)');
 
     const html = await fetchPlayerDataHTTP(pdgaNumber);
     const playerData = parsePlayerData(html, pdgaNumber);
@@ -349,48 +350,45 @@ router.post('/api/refresh-round-history/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
 
     const isIncremental = !!sinceDate;
 
-    logger.info(`${isIncremental ? 'Incrementally updating' : 'Fully refreshing'} round history for PDGA ${pdgaNumber}${sinceDate ? ` since ${sinceDate.toDateString()}` : ''}`);
+    logger.info({ pdgaNumber, lastRoundUpdate, isIncremental }, 'refresh-round-history started');
 
     browser = await launchBrowser();
-    
+
     let officialHistory;
     try {
       officialHistory = await getOfficialRatingHistory(browser, pdgaNumber);
       if (officialHistory.length > 0) {
         await saveRatingHistoryToDB(pdgaNumber, officialHistory);
       }
+      logger.info({ pdgaNumber, step: 'official_history_scrape', success: officialHistory.length > 0, count: officialHistory.length }, 'official history scrape completed');
     } catch (historyError) {
-      logger.error('Failed to fetch official history:', historyError.message);
+      logger.warn({ pdgaNumber, step: 'official_history_scrape', success: false, error: historyError.message }, 'official history scrape failed');
       officialHistory = [];
     }
-    
+
     let allRounds = [];
     try {
-      logger.info(`Using optimized approach: /details + new tournaments only for PDGA ${pdgaNumber}...`);
       allRounds = await getOptimizedPlayerRounds(browser, pdgaNumber);
-      
+
       if (allRounds.length > 0) {
         const roundsForDB = allRounds.map(round => ({
           rating: round.rating,
           date: round.date,
           competition: round.competition
         }));
-        
+
         await saveRoundHistoryToDB(pdgaNumber, roundsForDB, false);
-        logger.info(`✓ Saved ${allRounds.length} rounds using optimized approach`);
-        
         await updateLastRoundUpdateDate(pdgaNumber);
-      } else {
-        logger.info('ℹ No rounds found');
       }
+      logger.info({ pdgaNumber, step: 'rounds_scrape_save', success: allRounds.length > 0, count: allRounds.length, lastRoundUpdateTouched: allRounds.length > 0 }, 'rounds scrape and save completed');
     } catch (detailsError) {
-      logger.error('Failed to fetch rounds using optimized approach:', detailsError.message);
+      logger.warn({ pdgaNumber, step: 'rounds_scrape_save', success: false, error: detailsError.message }, 'rounds scrape and save failed');
       allRounds = [];
     }
-    
+
     await browser.close();
     browser = null;
-    
+
     const dbRounds = await getRoundHistoryFromDB(pdgaNumber);
     const roundsForPrediction = dbRounds.map(round => ({
       rating: round.rating,
@@ -398,9 +396,10 @@ router.post('/api/refresh-round-history/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
       competition: round.competition_name
     }));
 
-    const result = calculatePredictedRating(roundsForPrediction);
+    const result = calculatePredictedRating(roundsForPrediction, { pdgaNumber, callsite: 'refresh-round-history' });
+    logger.info({ pdgaNumber, step: 'predicted_calc', rating: result.rating, stdDev: result.stdDev, excludedRoundsCount: result.excludedRoundsCount }, 'predicted rating calculation step completed');
 
-    await savePredictedRatingToDB(pdgaNumber, result.rating, result.stdDev);
+    await savePredictedRatingToDB(pdgaNumber, result.rating, result.stdDev, result.excludedRoundsCount, result.cutoffRating, 'refresh-round-history');
 
     const officialCount = allRounds.filter(r => r.source === 'official').length;
     const newCount = allRounds.filter(r => r.source === 'new').length;
@@ -409,7 +408,8 @@ router.post('/api/refresh-round-history/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
       success: true,
       predictedRating: result.rating,
       stdDev: result.stdDev,
-      debugLog: result.debugLog,
+      excludedRoundsCount: result.excludedRoundsCount,
+      cutoffRating: result.cutoffRating,
       totalRounds: roundsForPrediction.length,
       officialRounds: officialCount,
       newRounds: newCount,
@@ -417,10 +417,8 @@ router.post('/api/refresh-round-history/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
       message: `Used /details (${officialCount} rounds) + new tournaments (${newCount} rounds)`
     });
   } catch (error) {
-    logger.error(`=== Error refreshing round history for PDGA ${pdgaNumber} ===`);
-    logger.error('Error type:', error.constructor.name);
-    logger.error('Error message:', error.message);
-    
+    logger.error({ pdgaNumber, step: 'unknown_or_orchestration', errorType: error.constructor.name, errorMessage: error.message }, 'refresh-round-history failed');
+
     if (browser) {
       try {
         await browser.close();
@@ -428,14 +426,14 @@ router.post('/api/refresh-round-history/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
         logger.error('Error closing browser:', closeError.message);
       }
     }
-    
-    res.status(500).json({ 
+
+    res.status(500).json({
       error: 'Failed to refresh round history',
       details: error.message,
       errorType: error.constructor.name,
       timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
-      suggestion: error.message.includes('socket hang up') ? 
-        'Rate limited by PDGA - try again in a few minutes.' : 
+      suggestion: error.message.includes('socket hang up') ?
+        'Rate limited by PDGA - try again in a few minutes.' :
         error.message.includes('timeout') ?
         'PDGA pages are loading slowly - try again later.' :
         'Tournament scraping failed - check server logs for details'
@@ -443,6 +441,46 @@ router.post('/api/refresh-round-history/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
   }
 });
 
+router.get('/api/admin/player-state/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
+  const { pdgaNumber } = req.params;
+  try {
+    const player = await getPlayerFromDB(pdgaNumber);
+    if (!player) {
+      return res.status(404).json({ error: 'Player not found', pdgaNumber: parseInt(pdgaNumber) });
+    }
+    const rounds = await getRoundHistoryFromDB(pdgaNumber);
+    const cutoff = getNextPDGAUpdateDate();
+    const twelveMonthsAgo = new Date(cutoff); twelveMonthsAgo.setFullYear(cutoff.getFullYear() - 1);
+    const twentyFourMonthsAgo = new Date(cutoff); twentyFourMonthsAgo.setFullYear(cutoff.getFullYear() - 2);
+
+    const roundsInLast12mo = rounds.filter(r => new Date(r.date) >= twelveMonthsAgo).length;
+    const roundsInLast24mo = rounds.filter(r => new Date(r.date) >= twentyFourMonthsAgo).length;
+    const dates = rounds.map(r => r.date).sort();
+
+    res.json({
+      pdgaNumber: player.pdga_number,
+      name: player.name,
+      currentRating: player.current_rating,
+      ratingChange: player.rating_change,
+      predictedRating: player.predicted_rating,
+      stdDev: player.std_dev,
+      excludedRoundsCount: player.excluded_rounds_count,
+      cutoffRating: player.cutoff_rating,
+      lastUpdated: player.last_updated,
+      lastRoundUpdate: player.last_round_update,
+      cutoffDate: cutoff.toISOString(),
+      roundCount: rounds.length,
+      roundsInLast12mo,
+      roundsInLast24mo,
+      oldestRound: dates[0] ?? null,
+      newestRound: dates[dates.length - 1] ?? null
+    });
+  } catch (err) {
+    logger.error({ err, pdgaNumber }, 'admin player-state endpoint failed');
+    res.status(500).json({ error: 'Failed to fetch player state', details: err.message });
+  }
+});
+
 router.post('/api/calculate-target-rating/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
   const { pdgaNumber } = req.params;
   const pdgaNum = parseInt(pdgaNumber, 10);
@@ -482,7 +520,7 @@ router.post('/api/calculate-target-rating/:pdgaNumber', async (req, res) => {
       competition: r.competition_name
     }));
 
-    const result = calculateRequiredAverage(roundRatings, target, numRounds);
+    const result = calculateRequiredAverage(roundRatings, target, numRounds, pdgaNum);
 
     logger.info(`Target rating calc for PDGA ${pdgaNum}: target=${target} rounds=${numRounds} -> avg=${result.requiredAverage}`);
 

src/services/player-service.js

@@ -36,18 +36,32 @@ async function getPlayerDataFromDB(pdgaNumber, { includeMonthlyHistory = true }
   try {
     const cachedPlayer = await getPlayerFromDB(pdgaNumber);
     if (cachedPlayer) {
-      logger.debug(`Loading PDGA ${pdgaNumber} from DB (source of truth)`);
+      logger.debug({ pdgaNumber }, 'Loading player from DB (source of truth)');
 
       let predictedRating = cachedPlayer.predicted_rating;
       let stdDev = cachedPlayer.std_dev;
+      let excludedRoundsCount = cachedPlayer.excluded_rounds_count;
+      let cutoffRating = cachedPlayer.cutoff_rating;
+      let recomputeAttempted = false;
       if (!predictedRating || predictedRating === 0) {
+        recomputeAttempted = true;
+        logger.debug({ pdgaNumber, dbValue: cachedPlayer.predicted_rating }, 'lazy recompute triggered for predicted_rating');
         predictedRating = await getPredictedRatingFromDB(pdgaNumber);
         const updatedPlayer = await getPlayerFromDB(pdgaNumber);
         stdDev = updatedPlayer?.std_dev;
+        excludedRoundsCount = updatedPlayer?.excluded_rounds_count;
+        cutoffRating = updatedPlayer?.cutoff_rating;
+        if (!predictedRating || predictedRating === 0) {
+          logger.info({ pdgaNumber, recomputedValue: predictedRating }, 'lazy recompute did not yield a positive predicted rating');
+        }
       }
 
       const rating = cachedPlayer.current_rating;
       const rawRatingChange = cachedPlayer.rating_change;
+      // Only warn about ≤0 if it wasn't already explained by a failed recompute (which has its own log)
+      if (!recomputeAttempted && predictedRating != null && predictedRating <= 0) {
+        logger.warn({ pdgaNumber, dbValue: predictedRating }, 'predicted rating present but <= 0 in DB without recompute — rendered as empty');
+      }
       const resolvedPredicted = predictedRating > 0 ? predictedRating : null;
       const resolvedStdDev = stdDev > 0 ? stdDev : null;
 
@@ -65,6 +79,8 @@ async function getPlayerDataFromDB(pdgaNumber, { includeMonthlyHistory = true }
         ratingChange,
         predictedRating: resolvedPredicted,
         stdDev: resolvedStdDev,
+        excludedRoundsCount: (excludedRoundsCount != null && excludedRoundsCount >= 0) ? excludedRoundsCount : null,
+        cutoffRating: (cutoffRating != null && cutoffRating > 0) ? cutoffRating : null,
         lastMonthRating,
         // gap between next predicted update and current rating (null when either is missing)
         deltaPredicted: (resolvedPredicted != null && rating != null) ? resolvedPredicted - rating : null,
@@ -134,22 +150,28 @@ async function scrapePDGARating(pdgaNumber, retries = 3) {
 async function getPredictedRatingFromDB(pdgaNumber) {
   try {
     const roundHistory = await getRoundHistoryFromDB(pdgaNumber);
-    if (roundHistory.length > 0) {
-      logger.debug(`Using ${roundHistory.length} cached rounds for PDGA ${pdgaNumber} prediction`);
-
-      const roundRatings = roundHistory.map(round => ({
-        rating: round.rating,
-        date: new Date(round.date),
-        competition: round.competition_name || 'Unknown'
-      }));
-
-      const result = calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings);
-
-      await savePredictedRatingToDB(pdgaNumber, result.rating, result.stdDev);
-
-      return result.rating;
+    if (roundHistory.length === 0) {
+      logger.info({ pdgaNumber, reason: 'no_round_history_in_db' }, 'predicted recompute returning 0 — no round history available');
+      return 0;
     }
-    return 0;
+
+    logger.debug({ pdgaNumber, cachedRounds: roundHistory.length }, 'Using cached rounds for prediction');
+
+    const roundRatings = roundHistory.map(round => ({
+      rating: round.rating,
+      date: new Date(round.date),
+      competition: round.competition_name || 'Unknown'
+    }));
+
+    const result = calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings, { pdgaNumber, callsite: 'getPredictedRatingFromDB' });
+
+    if (result.rating === 0) {
+      logger.warn({ pdgaNumber, roundsInDb: roundHistory.length }, 'predicted recompute returned 0 despite having rounds in DB');
+    }
+
+    await savePredictedRatingToDB(pdgaNumber, result.rating, result.stdDev, result.excludedRoundsCount, result.cutoffRating, 'lazy-recompute');
+
+    return result.rating;
   } catch (err) {
     logger.error(`Error getting predicted rating from DB for ${pdgaNumber}:`, err.message);
     return 0;
@@ -229,6 +251,8 @@ async function getAllRatingsFromDB(progressCallback = null) {
           ratingChange: errorRatingChange,
           predictedRating: null,
           stdDev: null,
+          excludedRoundsCount: null,
+          cutoffRating: null,
           lastMonthRating: (errorRating != null && errorRatingChange != null) ? errorRating - errorRatingChange : null,
           deltaPredicted: null,
           monthlyHistory: [],

src/services/rating-calculator.js

@@ -1,3 +1,5 @@
+const logger = require('../logger');
+
 function parseDate(dateStr) {
   const multiDayMatch = dateStr.match(/^(\d{1,2})(-([A-Za-z]{3}))?(\s+to\s+)(\d{1,2})-([A-Za-z]{3})-(\d{4})$/);
   if (multiDayMatch) {
@@ -79,15 +81,19 @@ function calculateStandardDeviation(ratings) {
   return Math.sqrt(variance);
 }
 
-function calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings) {
+function calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings, context = {}) {
+  const pdgaNumber = context.pdgaNumber ?? null;
+  const callsite = context.callsite ?? 'unknown';
   const debugLog = [];
   debugLog.push('=== PDGA RATING CALCULATION (Following Official Rules) ===');
 
   if (!roundRatings || roundRatings.length === 0) {
     debugLog.push('❌ No rounds provided for prediction');
-    return { rating: 0, debugLog };
+    logger.warn({ pdgaNumber, callsite, reason: 'no_rounds' }, 'predicted rating computed as 0');
+    return { rating: 0, debugLog, excludedRoundsCount: null, cutoffRating: null };
   }
 
+  logger.info({ pdgaNumber, callsite, inputRounds: roundRatings.length }, 'predicted rating calculation started');
   debugLog.push(`📊 Starting with ${roundRatings.length} total rounds`);
 
   const nextUpdateDate = getNextPDGAUpdateDate();
@@ -100,7 +106,8 @@ function calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings) {
 
   if (allSortedRounds.length === 0) {
     debugLog.push('❌ No valid rounds after filtering for update date');
-    return { rating: 0, debugLog };
+    logger.warn({ pdgaNumber, callsite, reason: 'no_rounds_after_date_filter', inputRounds: roundRatings.length, nextUpdateDate: nextUpdateDate.toISOString() }, 'predicted rating computed as 0');
+    return { rating: 0, debugLog, excludedRoundsCount: null, cutoffRating: null };
   }
 
   debugLog.push(`📊 After update date filter: ${allSortedRounds.length} rounds`);
@@ -117,8 +124,9 @@ function calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings) {
   debugLog.push('🗓️  12-MONTH FILTERING:');
   debugLog.push(`✅ Rounds in last 12 months: ${eligibleRounds.length}`);
 
+  let twentyFourMonthsBeforeUpdate = null;
   if (eligibleRounds.length < 8) {
-    const twentyFourMonthsBeforeUpdate = new Date(nextUpdateDate);
+    twentyFourMonthsBeforeUpdate = new Date(nextUpdateDate);
     twentyFourMonthsBeforeUpdate.setFullYear(twentyFourMonthsBeforeUpdate.getFullYear() - 2);
 
     eligibleRounds = allSortedRounds.filter(r => r.date >= twentyFourMonthsBeforeUpdate);
@@ -127,7 +135,8 @@ function calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings) {
 
   if (eligibleRounds.length === 0) {
     debugLog.push('❌ No eligible rounds found');
-    return { rating: 0, debugLog };
+    logger.warn({ pdgaNumber, callsite, reason: 'no_eligible_rounds', afterDateFilter: allSortedRounds.length, twelveMonthCutoff: twelveMonthsBeforeUpdate.toISOString(), twentyFourMonthCutoff: twentyFourMonthsBeforeUpdate ? twentyFourMonthsBeforeUpdate.toISOString() : null }, 'predicted rating computed as 0');
+    return { rating: 0, debugLog, excludedRoundsCount: null, cutoffRating: null };
   }
 
   debugLog.push(`📈 ELIGIBLE ROUNDS: ${eligibleRounds.length}`);
@@ -137,6 +146,8 @@ function calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings) {
 
   let workingRounds = [...eligibleRounds];
   let workingRatings = workingRounds.map(r => r.rating);
+  let excludedRoundsCount = 0;
+  let cutoffRating = null;
 
   if (workingRatings.length >= 7) {
     debugLog.push('🔍 OUTLIER EXCLUSION (≥7 rounds available):');
@@ -160,6 +171,9 @@ function calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings) {
     const stdDevOutliers = workingRatings.filter(rating => rating < stdDevCutoff);
     const hundredPointOutliers = workingRatings.filter(rating => rating < hundredPointCutoff && rating >= stdDevCutoff);
 
+    excludedRoundsCount = stdDevOutliers.length + hundredPointOutliers.length;
+    cutoffRating = Math.round(Math.max(stdDevCutoff, hundredPointCutoff));
+
     if (stdDevOutliers.length > 0) {
       debugLog.push(`   ❌ 2.5σ outliers removed: ${stdDevOutliers.length} rounds`);
       stdDevOutliers.forEach(rating => {
@@ -188,6 +202,8 @@ function calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings) {
       debugLog.push(`   ✅ Using ${filteredRatings.length} rounds after outlier removal`);
     } else {
       debugLog.push(`   ⚠️  Too few rounds after outlier removal (${filteredRatings.length}), keeping all rounds`);
+      excludedRoundsCount = 0;
+      cutoffRating = null;
     }
   } else {
     debugLog.push(`⏭️  OUTLIER EXCLUSION SKIPPED (only ${workingRatings.length} rounds, need ≥7)`);
@@ -228,7 +244,20 @@ function calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings) {
   debugLog.push(`   Final Rating: ${finalRating}`);
   debugLog.push('=== END PDGA CALCULATION ===');
 
-  return { rating: finalRating, stdDev: Math.round(stdDev), debugLog };
+  logger.info({
+    pdgaNumber,
+    callsite,
+    finalRating,
+    inputRounds: roundRatings.length,
+    afterDateFilter: allSortedRounds.length,
+    eligibleRounds: eligibleRounds.length,
+    outlierExclusionApplied: workingRatings.length >= 7,
+    doubleWeightingApplied: workingRatings.length >= 9,
+    excludedRoundsCount,
+    cutoffRating
+  }, 'predicted rating calculated');
+
+  return { rating: finalRating, stdDev: Math.round(stdDev), debugLog, excludedRoundsCount, cutoffRating };
 }
 
 module.exports = { parseDate, getNextPDGAUpdateDate, calculatePredictedRating, calculateStandardDeviation };

src/services/target-rating-calculator.js

@@ -1,14 +1,14 @@
 const { calculatePredictedRating, getNextPDGAUpdateDate } = require('./rating-calculator');
 const logger = require('../logger');
 
-function calculateRequiredAverage(roundRatings, targetRating, numRounds) {
+function calculateRequiredAverage(roundRatings, targetRating, numRounds, pdgaNumber) {
   if (!Array.isArray(roundRatings) || roundRatings.length === 0) {
     const err = new Error('No round history');
     err.code = 'NO_ROUNDS';
     throw err;
   }
 
-  const currentPredicted = calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings).rating;
+  const currentPredicted = calculatePredictedRating(roundRatings, { pdgaNumber, callsite: 'target-rating-calculator' }).rating;
   const nextUpdate = getNextPDGAUpdateDate();
   const syntheticDate = new Date(nextUpdate.getTime() - 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000);
 

views/pages/index.ejs

@@ -95,15 +95,6 @@
 `; %>
 
 <% var modals = `
-    <!-- Debug Modal -->
-    <div id="debug-modal" class="debug-modal" onclick="closeDebugModal(event)">
-        <div class="debug-content" onclick="event.stopPropagation()">
-            <button class="debug-close" onclick="closeDebugModal()">&times;</button>
-            <div class="debug-header" id="debug-header">Prediction Calculation Details</div>
-            <div class="debug-log" id="debug-log">Loading...</div>
-        </div>
-    </div>
-
     <!-- Add Player Confirmation Modal -->
     <div id="add-player-modal" class="modal" onclick="closeAddPlayerModal(event)">
         <div class="modal-content" onclick="event.stopPropagation()">

views/partials/player-history.ejs

@@ -36,8 +36,19 @@ const chartPdgaNumber = hasPlayer ? player.pdgaNumber : pdgaNumber;
         <dd><%= player.rating - player.stdDev %>–<%= player.rating + player.stdDev %></dd>
       </div>
       <% } %>
+      <% if (player.excludedRoundsCount != null && player.rating) { %>
+      <div>
+        <dt>Excluded rounds</dt>
+        <dd><%= player.excludedRoundsCount %></dd>
+      </div>
+      <% } %>
+      <% if (player.cutoffRating != null && player.rating) { %>
+      <div>
+        <dt>Cutoff rating</dt>
+        <dd><%= player.cutoffRating %></dd>
+      </div>
+      <% } %>
     </dl>
-    <button class="link-btn" onclick="showDebugInfo(<%= player.pdgaNumber %>)" style="margin-top: 4px;">View calculation details →</button>
   </div>
   <% } %>
 

views/partials/ratings-cards.ejs

@@ -124,6 +124,18 @@ function renderSparkline(values, opts) {
                     <dd><%= player.rating - player.stdDev %>–<%= player.rating + player.stdDev %></dd>
                 </div>
                 <% } %>
+                <% if (player.excludedRoundsCount != null && player.rating) { %>
+                <div>
+                    <dt>Excluded rounds</dt>
+                    <dd><%= player.excludedRoundsCount %></dd>
+                </div>
+                <% } %>
+                <% if (player.cutoffRating != null && player.rating) { %>
+                <div>
+                    <dt>Cutoff rating</dt>
+                    <dd><%= player.cutoffRating %></dd>
+                </div>
+                <% } %>
             </dl>
         </div>
     </div>